According to preliminary calculations by DZ Bank analyst Stephen Schneider, the companies listed on the Dax and MDax will make payouts totalling 61 billion euros in the 2025 dividend season.

Although this is only one billion more than in the previous year, this is a solid result given the economic weakness in Germany. However, only 40% of companies are increasing their dividend. In last year's season, the figure was 64%.

It can be questioned whether the expectations of the investment package voted through the German Parliament have already been reflected in the dividend forecasts for the 2026 season. Although the fantasy is fuelling share prices, a second step is to provide concrete profit calculations and estimates. „Consequently, a higher amount than the currently forecast 64.4 billion euros in distributions for the 2025 fiscal year, which has just started, should not come as a surprise in next year's season,“ says Schneider. For the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, DZ Bank expects a further increase in total dividends in the Dax and MDax to 71.7 billion euros and 77.7 billion euros respectively.

Despite the poor sentiment in 2024, automotive manufacturers and suppliers will still contribute the largest share of the dividend total in the current season.

And at 13.6 billion euros, Dax and MDax members will pay out around 22.4% of all dividends – though their share was over 28% last year.

Compared to the previous year, the industrial sector has made a significant step forward. Its share of the total amount distributed is climbing from 16% to 20.4%. As in the previous year, but with an increased share of 17.1%, the bronze medal position goes to the insurance companies. „The three DAX stocks Allianz, Hannover Re and Munich Re are mainly responsible for this ranking,“ explains Schneider. „The total sum of 10 billion euros is rounded off by the dividends from Talanx.“

But who are the top dividend payers? In first place, according to DZ Bank, is Allianz, which has increased its dividends by 10% to almost 6 billion euros. This means that Allianz contributes around a tenth of the total dividends paid by Dax and MDax stocks. It is followed by Deutsche Telekom with a total payout of 4.41 billion euros. The bronze medal goes to the Mercedes-Benz Group with 4.14 billion euros. In the last analysis twelve months ago, Mercedes came in just ahead of Allianz. But following a dividend cut of 20%, it has now had to relinquish this position.

Among the shares with the highest dividend yields, the automotive sector is prominently represented. Here, the Mercedes-Benz Group offers a yield of 7.2%. The dividend yield for the preference shares is also impressive at 5.9%. This is followed by Freenet with 5.7%, and Evonik with 5.4%, before BMW rounds off the picture with 5.2%.

The dividend season is now entering the busy phase. Deutsche Telekom will pay out its dividend after its Annual General Meeting on 9 April. „May can justifiably be described as the dividend month,“ says analyst Schneider. „Almost 75% of all the companies we track pay their dividends in this month.“

Due to the increase in the Dax share price, the estimated Dax dividend yield has recently fallen significantly. At 2.7%, the dividend yield forecast for the next twelve months is therefore at a very low level by historical standards. „Nevertheless, we expect the dividend yield to rise again in the coming months,“ explains Schneider.

„Despite the meagre index yield of 2.7%, we believe that dividend payments play a central and, above all, stabilising role in long-term asset accumulation,“ emphasises DZ Bank. The Dax performance index has gained almost 250% since the beginning of 2000. „The price index, on the other hand, has not shown any significant gains over 20 years,“ notes Schneider. „Only since the end of 2022 it has also shown significant growth“.

A look at the past ten years, or since the beginning of 2025, indicates a significant difference as well. The price index has increased by 75% in the past ten years. At 136%, the performance index has clearly exceeded this result.

The spread between the indices is therefore obvious, explains Schneider. „German companies in particular often give their shareholders a share in the profits via dividends. Foreign and American companies, on the other hand, usually choose the form of buybacks, which allows them to realise a higher share price.“

Various studies have shown that, in addition to share price gains, dividends make a considerable contribution to the overall return on shares in the longer term. „In Germany, the dividend share has been around 35% since 1973,“ notes DZ Bank. „In addition, the return share of dividends is subject to significantly lower fluctuations.“ Empirical studies have shown that both active management and a high level of diversification lead to better results with dividend investments. A structured investment and stock selection process is therefore crucial. This is particularly true against the background of the currently rather low dividend yield for the Dax.