Covestro has long defended itself against the unsolicited takeover attempts of Adnoc, the state oil company of Abu Dhabi. But now the Leverkusen-based company is opening its books to the investor from the Middle East. This is not surprising, as Adnoc has proven to have extreme staying power in recent years. Six months longer or shorter does not seem to matter to the oil sheikhs with their deep pockets.

In any case, the Covestro Board of Management could no longer ignore the pressure from investors, especially as shareholders have not received a dividend for two years in a row. To make matters worse, Covestro's share capital is entirely in free float. Some investors have indeed exceeded the reportable voting rights threshold. However, they are investment funds.

It is, of course, clear that the proposed offer of 62 euros per share or 11.7 billion euros in total, is subject to the results of the due diligence process. Should surprisingly negative details come to light during the audit, renegotiations would probably be necessary. However, it does not look like this will be the case, as this is a so-called confirmatory due diligence, in which many details have already been clarified in advance, and the assumptions only need to be confirmed.

Nevertheless, it would be premature to say that the deal is perfect. The negotiations are also about investment commitments and presumably the preservation of individual business locations. This also explains the share price reactio. Although the DAX share jumped 6.9% on the day the new talks were announced, at around 54 euros it is still some way short of the 62 euros on offer. This is around the level of the initial indicative offer of 55 euros made in June 2023.

Given the economic situation in Germany and in the chemicals industry, Adnoc is taking advantage of the crisis environment. In addition to the global economic weakness, high energy prices in this country are gnawing away at the competitiveness of this crucial industry. And there is still no sign of a sustained recovery.