AnalysisEU Parliament after the elections

Europe's contested firewall

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in the process of putting together a Parliamentary majority for her re-election. The key question is how does she deal with the parties on the far right?

Europe's contested firewall

Hardly a day goes by without the results of the European elections having to be adjusted. For example, the Hungarian alliance Tisza or the Dutch Farmers' Party joined the Christian Democratic party family. And Czech party ANO is leaving the Liberal group, which is thus shrinking further. In short, there is a lot of movement in the EU Parliament. However, the focus is less on Christian Democrats or Liberals. Instead, the question is how the parties on the right are coalescing, after winning additional seats and strengthened their position.

Shortly after the European elections, plans for a united right, i.e. an alliance of all parties to the right or centre, were once again making the rounds. According to unconfirmed reports, far-right celebrities such as France's Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National), the Netherlands' Geert Wilders (Partij voor de Vrijheid) and Italy's Matteo Salvini (Lega) met in Brussels to explore the options. And Hungary's Viktor Orbán (Fidesz) met with Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia) to discuss options.

However, a substantial political force on the right is not considered realistic. One argument against this is that domestic opponents such as the Brothers of Italy and the Lega or the Rassemblement National and the Reconquête would have to join forces. Furthermore, the fact that Le Pen insisted shortly before the election that the AfD be kicked out of her far-right circle does not fit in with the idea of a united right, nor does the recent report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine that another party family is attempting to form at EU level under the name „The Sovereignists“ - alongside the ECR (European Conservatives and Reformers) and the far-right ID (Identity and Democracy).

Profiling towards the centre

Even experienced Brussels observers find it difficult to maintain an overview. While the programmatic differences between individual parties are often blurred, a strategic difference is becoming increasingly clear. Whilst some continue to cultivate their radicalism, others are in the process of profiling themselves as mainstream forces –with the aim of shedding their role as permanent opposition. This is particularly true of the Rassemblement National in France.

This intended change of role, in turn, poses the traditional parties with the question of how to deal with the right. So far, for example, MPs from the far-right ID alliance have not taken the lead (as „rapporteurs“) in almost any legislative dossier. The very few exceptions include primarily technical agreements. What's more, representatives of mainstream parties report that members of the ID family have rarely participated as shadow rapporteurs in agreements with representatives of other parties, and have even stayed away from the coordinators' meetings. However, this could now change if right-wing parties increasingly try to be perceived as parties of the centre.

But the main reason for the fact that the far right has so far hardly carried out any parliamentary day-to-day work, in addition to the disinterest of those involved, was that the mainstream parties prevented the far right from actively participating.

„Cordon sanitaire“

This „cordon sanitaire“, whether translated as „barrier“ or „firewall“, has now moved to the centre of political debate. To what extent is a nuanced approach to the individual parties beyond the Christian Democratic-Conservative party family appropriate? Admittedly, there is no one in the circle of traditional parties who would disagree that there are considerable differences between the right-wing parties. Even social democrats admit behind closed doors that Meloni has so far presented himself as more EU-friendly than expected, particularly on the issues of migration and support for Ukraine. However, Social Democrats and Greens disagree with Christian Democrats on what this means for their work in the EU Parliament.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and the EU Parliament elections leading candidate for the SPD Katharina Barley, have threatened Ursula von der Leyen that the EU Commission President cannot rely on the support of Social Democrats if she moves close to Meloni politically in order to secure the votes of the Fratelli d'Italia. In contrast, several Christian Democrats have signalled that they can imagine being supported by Meloni's party – in addition to von der Leyen herself, former Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn and the leader of the European People's Party, Manfred Weber. „I clearly defined our firewall when I was elected two years ago – we will only work together with parties that are pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine and, thirdly, pro the rule of law,“ emphasised Weber in a recent interview. The firewall, Spahn explained, runs „to the right of Meloni's party in the European Parliament.“

Of course, the most prominent representatives of the far-right bloc, such as Le Pen, have indicated that there is great interest in winning Meloni for their party alliance. After all, Le Pen wants to make a name for herself more as a policy-maker than as a protester. The latest dispute among France's Republicans shows the explosive nature of the question of which form of cooperation is possible with whom. Where the firewall runs in the European Parliament will, therefore, continue to inflame tempers and determine debates for some time to come.