There is no doubt that the two defendants in the recent Cum-ex trial at the Frankfurt Regional Court have fallen from grace. Ulf Johannemann was most recently the global head of taxes at the renowned law firm Freshfields. In late 2019, he had to leave the firm after nearly a month in pre-trial detention. Since then, it appears he has not pursued full-time employment. Although Johannemann is still in his early 50s. The second defendant, Hagen W., the former CEO of Maple Bank, is significantly older at 62. But for him as well, his career in his chosen profession has come to an end. He is practically retired, as was stated at the start of the trial on Thursday. In Johannemann's case, it is further compounded by the fact that he has been publicly associated with Cum-ex by name for years, with Cum-ex being synonymous with one, if not the largest, tax fraud cases involving damages in the billions of euros. A future career in the tax industry seems hardly conceivable.

Johannemann's attorney also appears to want to emphasize the notion of having been penalised enough. In his opening statement, he pointed to the extensive media coverage, the age of his client, the complexity of the matter that must be viewed with the knowledge of that time (2006 to 2015), and last but not least, the high presumed damages, which should not obscure the individual's perspective. Clearly, the intention is to persuade the court to be lenient.

But can that succeed? If we follow the indictment read on Wednesday, the answer should actually be no. Because in it, the damage amount for the treasury is not only specified as precisely €388,557,251.30. Johannemann is accused of presenting "evidently flimsy arguments," supposedly facts were "deliberately misrepresented," and "true facts were deliberately concealed" from the tax authorities. He is alleged to have prepared several favorable expert opinions, to have argued against his own convictions, and to have arrived at a "erroneous and untenable conclusion."

All in all, this is strong stuff, and the prosecution is likely to demand substantial prison sentences. This also applies to the former Maple Bank executive, whose responsibilities included the Cum-ex trades. Given the apparent difference in strategy compared to the recent trial in Wiesbaden involving Hanno Berger – it now seems that the defense and defendants are pulling in the same direction – there is at least a chance that the sentence will be less than the 8 years and 3 months in Wiesbaden.