It is surprising that he won so decisively. But the advantage this time is that there is no limbo where things are unclear for a long time. No riots either. The markets like that for the time being. What that means in the long term is, of course, difficult to predict. We now have to see what he implements and how. There are always two aspects: What do I go into the election campaign with, and what do I ultimately implement? The fact that the Republicans also have a majority in both houses of Congress is certainly helpful for his agenda.

We have identified sectors for which this is initially positive. Firstly, there are financial stocks, i.e. banks, because Trump is focussing on deregulation here. At the same time, we will see inflationary tendencies as a result of the deficit increase, and then interest rates will probably also rise.

The Fed will, of course, have to take a look at this. We can already see that Fed Chairman Powell is slowing down the cycle of interest rate cuts. As a result, we will probably see a widening of the gap with the ECB. This could widen more if the Fed raises interest rates again more quickly than the ECB, thanks to the strong US economy. This could then have a negative feedback effect on the lending business of American banks. However, Trump's plans for banks will initially have a supportive effect.

If Trump really pushes through with his plans, and massively increases tariffs not only on Chinese but also on European products, then European industrial companies, be they mechanical engineering companies or car manufacturers, will, of course, suffer. Conversely, industrial companies in America will be supported. Nevertheless, we all know from our first semester of economics that tariffs are not the panacea for making an economy efficient. Efficient international trade helps everyone involved.

The IT sector. America is already IT-heavy anyway, and a protectionist policy like the one that could now be introduced would also provide additional support for this sector. And also not forgetting all the companies involved in oil, exploration, production, etc.

With the „red sweep“, this is a sector that is now coming under pressure. People are now coming into government who have a different view of climate change and decarbonisation than we do in Europe. I'm curious to see whether and to what extent this will have an impact on the European green energy sector. That's something I can't quite predict yet.

I don't think there will be a major rotation. Big tech will still be in demand. But, indeed, Trump's tariff policy will initially have a supportive effect on American small and mid-caps. But big tech will continue to fulfil the high expectations due to economies of scale. The big techs also showed earnings strength in the last reporting season, and I don't see this earnings strength disappearing. I would, therefore not necessarily bet on a major rotation now.

There is a whole potpourri of reasons for this. ASML came under pressure because the problems we saw at TSMC and Intel had a negative impact on the order books. But if you look at the company and its business model, there is no alternative to a stock like ASML. That's why I'm not too worried here.

Yes, we have now seen in the reporting season that the large AI-relevant companies are once again increasing their capex in AI. Massive investments are therefore continuing to be made in this area. For these investments, I also need the corresponding infrastructure and the corresponding chips – and, therefore, ASML.

The fact is, whether I now take an Nvidia or an ASML, there are already high valuations from the start. On the other hand, we have seen that these companies justify their valuations time and again with the corresponding increases in earnings. Nevertheless, investors quickly become nervous due to the valuations when there is less than ideal news, and sell immediately because they think it is already too expensive. But the question always remains: If I say goodbye to these shares, when will I get back in? The risk of no longer being involved would be too high for me. I'm not singing a swan song for these stocks.

Microsoft has an incredibly solid, profitable business with good margins and corresponding cash flows. They can afford all the investments in the world of AI. Tesla is a special case. With Trump's election victory, Elon Musk has put himself in a very favourable situation, but you can also see how quickly share price movements can change. I've often heard the swan song for Tesla, but somehow, it just doesn't materialise. Amazon has presented gigantic figures, and I therefore believe that they will continue to capitalise on their economies of scale. Of course, the issue of antitrust law is always hovering over everything. Trump has also played this card a few times. This is also a Sword of Damocles for Alphabet. But even if „Antitrust“ were to contain it, that doesn't mean that this business model itself would become obsolete.

We are already seeing companies from the AI development sector that are benefiting here. The use of semiconductors in AI increases their complexity and, therefore, the design requirements. Specifications for certain applications must already be taken into account when designing chips. Physical aspects, such as how the different materials used harmonise with each other, must also be taken into account. Increasingly, the focus is also on design approaches that promise a reduction in power consumption. This is the playing field of EDA (Electronic Design Automation), the software for the design of semiconductors; we see opportunities here.

I also consider healthcare to be a promising sector. Several megatrends, such as demographics, play a role here. However, it is very difficult to judge which pharmaceutical companies could win the race, which new drugs will prevail and what is still in the pipeline. That's why I'm a fan of broad diversification – especially in the pharmaceutical sector.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk started a trend with their weight loss products and were able to ride this trend very well and capitalise on the first mover effect. They have recently come under pressure because other pharmaceutical companies are now following suit and want a slice of the cake in this high-margin business. So, the competitive pressure is growing.

Yes, there are also cardiovascular issues, cancer, i.e. oncology, Alzheimer's research. There are many areas in which there could be breakthroughs. Other companies could succeed in these areas, which would then benefit from the first-mover effect. That's why I'm a big fan of broad diversification. This applies to the healthcare sector but also in general.

I am still a fan of financials. However, I would be a little wary of consumer-related shares. There has also been a lot of trouble in the luxury sector recently. Many shares have come under pressure here due to the weak Chinese consumer. The question now is: How will the country react to the new situation with Trump? The Chinese government will probably also have to put together a fiscal package. And I think they are aware that they need to come up with something bigger so that the Chinese market gets a corresponding boost. And if such a stimulus comes, then I also see European luxury stocks on the upswing again.

When it comes to auto stocks, I would be more cautious at the moment. We saw really bad numbers from BMW, Audi, and, a few weeks ago VW. This doesn't all look rosy. Although one could say that the valuations are in the low single-digit P/E range, couldn't that be exciting? But I would be careful and not touch it yet. This is like a falling knife for me.

We see massive competitive pressure from China, overproduction, and subsidies that pose difficulties for German manufacturers. In addition, the Chinese are no longer a cheap imitation when it comes to technology; they have caught up massively and, in some cases, have taken over the leadership in innovation, especially when it comes to battery technology. The German manufacturers have a Herculean task ahead of them. I'm curious to see how the discussion regarding combustion cars continues. I think that openness to technology is the right way forward here. Less regulation would also be good. Because of Trump alone, we will have to see an impetus for deregulation in Europe. And if we don't see this, things could get difficult.

Purely from a markets perspective, I think we see some hope that something will change in the medium term, and that the problems that we undoubtedly have in the economy will be better addressed and tackled by a new government. Also, there is more consistency. The previous government has not exactly shown an industry or market-friendly demeanour. However, a certain market volatility will remain for the time being, because there are a few issues on the political side that are not yet entirely clear. We haven't heard much from Trump so far that can be directly addressed. What else will happen in Germany until we have an effective government again? These are topics that the market prices in as uncertainty. If there's anything the market doesn't like, it's uncertainty.

About the person: Marc Decker is Head of Equities at Quintet, the parent company of the Munich private bank Merck Finck. Decker has many years of experience in portfolio management, including at DWS, and Meag, the investment company of the Munich Re Group. He was also active in business as a portfolio manager and board member of the Skalis fund boutique.