"Bosch remains a company geared towards growth“
Mr Forschner, how many of the planned job cuts are a result of the economic downturn, and how many are due to structural factors, such as the slower ramp-up of electromobility?
I can't quantify that, but a large part is structural. However, there is a smooth transition. In the mobility sector, we have segments that are particularly impacted: automated driving and electromobility. We had assumed significantly higher unit volumes for both. And we don't expect demand to increase significantly in the next year or two.
In retrospect, works councils accuse the management of utopian optimism.
You might see it that way today, but it certainly wasn't the case at the time. Like other companies in our sector, we made our decisions on the basis of accepted economic premises. The premises have changed due to market conditions. Then there are two options. The first is to close your eyes and move on with an uncertain outcome. But that is not an approach for a company like Bosch, which needs vigorous further development to survive.
And the second?
To adjust. We have to modify our sales expectations and employment accordingly, based on the changed premises. This is the only way we can fulfil our responsibility to the entire company. This is our ongoing task anyway.
Why is that?
Bosch is a company with almost 430,000 employees in around 470 subsidiaries and regional companies worldwide, and an annual turnover of more than 90 billion euros. Even in periods of economic boom, there is always a need for adjustment here and there. Unfortunately, we now have a situation that is putting pressure on the entire company. However, one thing is often neglected in the discussion about job cuts in Germany.
Which is?
That we are honouring agreements with our employee representatives, and take our social responsibility very seriously. I would also like to remind you that Bosch has created tens of thousands of jobs over the past decades. When I started at Bosch in 1996, the company had 90,000 employees in Germany, now there are more than 130,000.
Will the job cuts remain as announced, or will there be still more, as was the case last November? The employee side is complaining about a salami-slicing approach.
In principle, we cannot rule out further adjustments. What has been communicated so far has been done to the best of our knowledge and belief based on current planning. However, categorically ruling something out in the current situation with the economic and geopolitical risks would simply not be serious.
Do you now have any doubts about the transition to electromobility?
No, we are still convinced that there will be a comprehensive switch to electromobility in the medium to long term. But the transition will not take place at the same pace in all regions of the world. We, therefore, continue to argue in favour of technological openness. We have the technological expertise in all fields and the resources for the transition. So it shouldn't be up to us.
According to your forecast, Bosch's sales will fall slightly in 2024. Is the goal of being a growth company jeopardised?
No. In recent decades, we have grown by an average of 6 to 8% per year – both organically and through acquisitions. That is also our clear ambition for the future. Bosch remains a company that is geared towards growth. Our founder Robert Bosch left us this goal as a legacy. Adjusted for exchange rate effects, we expect to be 1% above the previous year's figure in 2024.
All four business segments are currently suffering from a weak market. Do you see any signs of improvement?
The Chinese government's announcement to loosen fiscal and monetary policy could stimulate economic growth. We would also benefit from this. We also expect slightly stronger growth in the USA, partly due to the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. For Europe, we are preparing for another very difficult and economically weak year. Vehicle production here in 2023 was almost a quarter below the 2017 level, and in 2024, we expect to be around 4% below the previous year's figure.
What do you expect for 2025?
In our planning, we assume that global vehicle production will grow by a maximum of 1%.
Adjusted for special items, the return on sales before interest and taxes will be less than 4% this year. Bosch last achieved the target of 7% in 2018. Is it still realistic to want to achieve this figure again in 2026?
Yes, it is and is, therefore, firmly anchored in our planning. However, two conditions must be met. Firstly, our core markets must pick up again. And they will because, at some point, the warehouses in the supply chain will be empty.
The economy must therefore play its part. And the other?
Secondly, our structural measures must show their effect.
In 2025, the job cuts will initially have a negative impact on earnings, right?
Yes, that will be the case.
You are aiming for a free cash flow of 1% of sales. Is that achievable for 2024?
We are highly unlikely to achieve this figure this year. However, the free cash flow will at least be balanced.
Bosch also wants to grow through acquisitions. In July of this year, you announced the purchase of Johnson Controls' global heating, ventilation and air conditioning business for 8 billion dollars. Is the weak economy affecting the preparations for the takeover?
No, we are on schedule. We still see this acquisition as an ideal addition. It will strengthen our non-automotive business, increase our share of sales in the USA and Asia and complement our heating business, in which we are already a leading provider in Europe.
So will the takeover still be completed in mid-2025?
Yes, provided, of course, that the competition authorities give their approval.
Where will the headquarters of the heating and air conditioning business be then?
That has not yet been decided.
Is Bosch really financing the purchase exclusively with its own funds?
In principle, we could finance the purchase from our resources. However, to maintain our financial flexibility, we will probably use a mixture of existing liquidity and borrowed capital for the financing. Last year, for example, we raised 4.5 billion euros with a euro bond to have this kind of financial flexibility in general. We will decide in the first quarter whether we will issue another bond on the capital market next year.
Would an IPO be an option for the heating and air conditioning business?
Well, I can only repeat what we keep saying: an IPO is out of the question for the Bosch Group as a whole. We are not ruling it out for individual areas. However, we have no concrete plans.
When would such a step be attractive?
We want to be among the top three in the world in all segments. A merger in a joint venture is also conceivable. It might then be necessary to float part of the company on the stock market. But being capital markets-ready means more.
Namely what?
It's not as if we don't have any capital markets experience. In India, we have a listed company in which Bosch owns 71% of the shares. And our euro bond in May 2023 was the largest in Europe since 2019, at 4.5 billion euros. A private placement in the USA in October 2023 raised 1.2 billion dollars. But it's also about the timeline.
What do you mean by that?
When we sold part of Building Technology to the financial investor Triton, the transaction involved 60 legal entities. A spin-off like this costs a lot of time and money. The effort involved is huge. Once again, there are no concrete plans, but we have to think about how we can improve our capital markets capabilities.