Centrifugal Forces in the European Union
What applies in sport should also apply in business. Rules that are rejected by most (market) participants don't stand a chance in the long term. In athletics, there was an example of this in the long jump in 2020. In future, the winner was only to be determined in the sixth jump among the top three competitors up to that point. Performances from the first five jumps no longer counted towards victory. The result: The first winner, whose best distance was four centimetres shorter than that of the runner-up, felt that the victory was unfair. The „Final 3“ rule only survived for a year before the officials came to their senses.
In the European Union, meanwhile, it seems unclear whether there is a comparable ability to learn with regard to the rules of the game in the economic area. This is due to the fact that many market participants are less interested in fair competition than is the case in sport. For example, business sectors rarely act in unison in Brussels. In the German banking industry, not even the three pillars can agree on a common vision for Capital Markets Union. There is certainly no unity across borders. And even if an industry warns almost unanimously of the consequences of regulation, this is sometimes ignored – as in the case of punitive tariffs on e-cars from China.
In addition to the German car industry, the head of the French-Italian car manufacturer Stellantis, Carlos Tavares, also warned the EU against scoring an own goal. The measure will accelerate European plant closures instead of slowing them down, he emphasised once again just recently, on the sidelines of the Paris Motor Show.
Horse-trading on the regulations
But even with support from its neighbouring country, German industrial interests do not seem to be getting a hearing in Brussels at the moment. If German and French interests diverge, the western neighbours have the upper hand anyway. The most recent example is the further development of the EU Batteries Regulation. In addition to the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), the Federation of German Industries (BDI), the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), the German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association (ZVEI), and the Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) are also taking to the barricades. The proposal currently on the table stipulates that the national electricity mix should be used as the basis for calculating the carbon footprint of battery production. However, if the actual local electricity mix were not taken into account, the carbon footprint of batteries produced in Germany would always be worse.
This is because a significant proportion of the electricity mix in Germany is generated in coal-fired power plants. France, on the other hand, relies primarily on nuclear energy. The fact that Germany has a much higher proportion of genuine renewables is then irrelevant. This is because nuclear power, which has been classified as not safe enough in Germany, is considered sustainable in the EU. Germany agreed to this in a horse-trading deal with France, and was able to push through gas power as a green technology in return. A lousy deal, as we can now see. After all, gas power only accounts for 10.5% of German electricity generation, while nuclear power accounts for 67% of French electricity generation. The naivety of the German negotiators in Brussels seems to be taking its revenge here.
No „fair play“ between the states
The same applies to the Stability and Growth Pact, under which Germany, although significantly less indebted than France or Italy, is now expected to tighten its belt even more than was already planned, due to its own debt brake. And the German government wants to adhere to this in order to set an example.
Meanwhile, deficit proceedings have been initiated against France. However, Paris is not yet prepared to exercise real spending discipline. The country does not want to comply with the 3% deficit limit again until 2029, having already clearly breached it for years. This means that there is no „fair play“ in Europe in this area either. Pro-Europeans should observe this with concern. Without a common understanding of fair rules and how to apply them, the EU is doomed to failure. Unfortunately, things are currently moving in a different direction. The centrifugal forces in Europe are increasing.