InterviewMarkus Kobler, Chief Financial Officer of DWS

DWS has an eye on takeovers in Asia

DWS is eyeing takeovers in Asia. To realise this, the issue of up to 80 million new shares would be a feasible option, says CFO Markus Kobler in an interview with Börsen-Zeitung.

DWS has an eye on takeovers in Asia

Mr Kobler, mergers are currently on everyone's lips in the financial sector. In June, however, DWS paid out a special dividend of 800 million euros, in addition to the regular dividend of 420 million euros, thus keeping fewer financial reserves for possible takeovers. Is that still appropriate in these times?

The special dividend is the fulfilment of a promise we made to our shareholders at our Capital Markets Day 2022. This does not affect our ability to make potential acquisitions. At the Annual General Meeting this year, the owners gave us the opportunity to issue up to 80 million new shares. If you offset that against our share price …

… at the current price of around 38 euros, this corresponds to a total of around 3 billion euros.

We also have an „A2“ rating from Moody's, which puts us in a position to raise external capital. We are therefore ready to make a move.

Where would takeovers make sense?

Our medium-term ambition is to be one of the top 5 in the top 5: In other words, we want to be one of the five largest international providers in each of the world's five largest economies – in our home market of Germany or Europe, in the USA, in China, in Japan and in India. We have long since achieved this position in Germany and Europe, and we can achieve this goal in the USA through organic growth.

So that leaves Asia.

Exactly, we are thinking about strategic projects in the region. With our strong partnership with Nippon Life in Japan, and our 30% stake in Harvest Asset Management in China, we are no stranger to the region.

What would be conceivable there?

We'll talk about it when there's something to report.

And when will that be?

I can't say anything about a specific date. But it won't be today or tomorrow.

DWS has assets under management totalling 933 billion euros. Is the company big enough for a global organisation?

Size is not an end in itself for us. There are basically three reasons for acquisitions in our industry: firstly, to broaden and deepen distribution in a core market; secondly, to scale the business; and thirdly, to add investment expertise. This is precisely the order in which we prioritise. Points two and three, ergo scalability and adding expertise, are less relevant for us.

Why not?

On expertise: With its diversified business model, DWS is already a broadly positioned company with in-depth expertise in all relevant areas. On scalability: An acquisition only makes sense in terms of scalability if it enables substantial cost synergies – by around a third at the acquired company, according to a rule of thumb. This is a very difficult task. Most takeovers fail because of this.

What are the hurdles involved in mergers?

They entail high opportunity costs: the management is tied up for several years. As a result, there is less time to focus on other tasks, such as customers and investment performance. This should be kept in mind.

The passive investment segment, which includes the ETF brand Xtrackers, is by far the largest segment with assets under management totalling 290 billion euros. Isn't this one-sided focus risky?

Objection! I don't see it that way. We are well diversified and we will remain so. Don't forget: in the long-term active business, which includes the Active Equity, Active SQI, Active Fixed Income and Multi Assets segments, we manage more than 430 billion euros. In addition, we have more than 100 billion euros in assets under management in the Alternatives segment. This shows that DWS has a strong and broad business model. That is also one of the reasons why I joined the team a year ago.

While DWS has so far exceeded its growth targets in the passive segment of an average of 12% per year from 2022 to 2025, it has fallen well short of its target for alternative investments of 10% per year.

The two segments follow a different growth logic. In the passive segment, it's also about being on the market as quickly as possible with new topics – before the competition. In the alternatives segment, where we also want to grow – private credit, for example – it is more important to build up a track record. This is a task that takes many years.

But this is precisely where DWS is struggling. The open-ended property funds in the „Grundbesitz“ series, for example, show negative returns over the year.

It is true that two thirds of the investments in our alternatives segment are in property. It is also true that the interest rate environment has put the market under pressure for around seven quarters. However, with interest rates now falling, we will see a recovery phase. We expect that we are at the beginning of a longer market cycle, which will also bring us new business again in the coming years.

Open-ended property funds have been experiencing outflows throughout Germany for about a year now. What is the situation at DWS?

The majority of the funds invested are subject to a notice period of twelve months. The outflows we are seeing today are therefore due to customer decisions made last year. Since July 2023, however, cancellations by investors who want to withdraw money have been decreasing again – initially only gradually, then more and more strongly.

Falling interest rates are a driver for the entire industry. Central banks are lowering their key rates, including the Fed and ECB.

We see this as a very positive signal. Firstly, inflation seems to be largely under control, which is good in any case. Secondly, valuations are rising across all securities because the discount factor is also falling as interest rates fall, meaning that future income is worth more in mathematical terms.

With the growth in value, the assets under management and thus the earnings base of DWS will foreseeably increase.

This is the starting position we are currently planning from. But as a cautious CFO, you naturally have to think about other scenarios and be prepared for them.

You are probably also preoccupied with the cost discipline that DWS has repeatedly imposed on itself.

If we keep costs under control, we will be able to act from a position of strength in the future. Overall, we are disciplined, but of course we sometimes can still have robust discussions in which have to say no. But with the cost targets we have communicated, we have a guard rail. We have emphasised that we will keep our cost base flat – with the exception of costs that would result from stronger than expected growth in assets under management. As far as extraordinary costs such as those for transformation, legal cases or severance payments are concerned, we expect a significant decline in 2025.

According to your calculation, the adjusted cost/income ratio was 63.9% in the first half of the year. The ratio was already lower in 2022. You are aiming for less than 59% in 2025. Where do you get the optimism that you will achieve this target?

The costs are only one part of the equation. The other part is revenue. We expect income to develop positively. We were one of the companies with the strongest organic growth last year – we want to continue this. Added to this are the performance fees, from which we also benefit. Rising income combined with stable costs means that the cost/income ratio is falling.

The fee margins have fallen steadily in the past. In the first half of the year, they stood at 26.3 basis points. How will margins develop in the future?

There has been pressure on margins ever since the industry has existed. Nobody can escape it. However, if we continue to show consistently good investment performance, we will be able to compete with benchmarks and competitor products. We also want to create innovative product solutions. This will enable us to counter the trend.

But if the traditionally low-margin passive segment grows faster than the other fund segments, margins are likely to remain under pressure in the future.

That is correct. And I'm not saying that our fee margins will suddenly rise again. What counts for us, however, is whether the marginal income is higher than the marginal costs, in other words whether we are earning something with newly raised funds.

In a teleconference with analysts, CEO Stefan Hoops outlined the shrinking importance of the fund industry. Asset managers offer products as building blocks that are then used by digital third-party providers. Why is DWS so pessimistic?

I don't see this as pessimism at all, but rather a sober analysis that we are basing our actions on. It is better to actively tackle an industry trend than to be driven by it.

So what is your strategy?

We are tackling digitalisation in various areas: In the product area, we launched two exchange-traded products with Galaxy Digital Holdings in the spring, which track the price of the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Our joint venture Allunity is working on launching a fully collateralised and regulated euro stablecoin in the course of the coming year. For our ETF brand Xtrackers, we already sell around a third of our products via digital channels. These include neobanks, platforms and the discretionary portfolio management of other providers. Our aim is to be the preferred partner of these providers.

Speaking of preferred partners: the German government is planning to strengthen funded pension provision – whether by building up a capital cushion in the first pillar of pension insurance, or by reforming the Riester pension and creating a new state-subsidised private product. What does DWS hope to achieve here?

In our view, it is important to tackle the issue as quickly and, above all, consistently as possible. The last baby boomers, who will retire around 2030, would gain nothing from a reform if we lose time now – and it would be more protracted and more expensive for future generations. Our claim as a provider must be that we have good solutions for all three pillars of retirement provision – capital accumulation in the statutory pension, in occupational pension schemes and in private pension schemes.

Sustainable investment is currently receiving less attention. The industry is launching fewer products and net inflows are manageable. What is DWS' assessment?

We have bucked this trend and recorded net inflows of 1.2 billion euros into ESG funds in the first six months of this year alone, primarily in passive funds. Client interest has not fundamentally diminished, but attention has shifted due to high interest rates and uncertainty.

In May 2022, the public prosecutor's office, BaFin and the federal police searched the premises of DWS to investigate suspected misrepresentations regarding sustainable investments. To date, no charges have been brought, but the public prosecutor's office has not officially closed the investigation either. For how much longer?

We are still in talks with the public prosecutor's office in Frankfurt to finalise the proceedings. And the issue is still a top priority for management. The timing of the conclusion is not in our hands and a result has not yet been finalised.


About the person

When DWS announced in August 2023 that it was poaching the then Chief Financial Officer from rival Allianz Global Investors, he was viewed as a solid choice, following the departure of CFO Claire Peel. Kobler, who holds a doctorate in economics, and has German, British and Swiss citizenship, will be based in his adopted home of London.