At its first meeting of the year, the ECB Governing Council unanimously lowered the deposit rate to 2.75%. The rates decision in March is also likely to be fairly uncontroversial, but after the expected further easing of 25 basis points, the discussions are likely to become more heated.

This is because a deposit rate of 2.5% is the threshold above which a significant number of central bankers consider it plausible that monetary policy could no longer have a restrictive effect. This applies in particular to the hawks on the ECB Governing Council – though not only them.

Ahead of the meeting in April, the hawks might warn against further easing. After all, they currently see no need for a monetary policy that stimulates the economy.

In view of the weakening economy, this view may seem strange. However, if you look at the prospects for inflation – and that is what the ECB is concerned with – there are good reasons for a cautious approach to easing monetary policy. The ECB must achieve its inflation target this year as planned and communicated – in order not to damage its credibility. Although much of the inflation outlook looks good, uncertainty remains high.

The ECB is forecasting significantly lower wage growth from the second quarter onwards. If this does not materialise, for example because the shortage of skilled workers keeps wages rising despite limited economic growth, there is a real risk that inflation will stabilise slightly above 2% if the ECB eases too much.

Uncertainty is also coming from across the Atlantic. It is difficult to predict Donald Trump's policies, and their effects on inflation in the eurozone. With all these question marks, it would only make sense to lower the deposit rate below 2.5% once there is more clarity on the inflation outlook. And it is questionable whether this will already be the case in April.