Germany cultivates small fish being circled by sharks
Unicredit's attempt to swallow up Commerzbank is not only causing a stir in Frankfurt's office towers. There is also a heated debate in Berlin about how Germany's second-largest private sector bank could so easily fall into the clutches of Unicredit, as the state withdraws as a shareholder.
After all, the purchase of HVB illustrated what such a deal could mean for the financial centre. Billions were transferred across the Alps to the south. In 2017 the Italian parent company treated itself to a 3 billion euros special dividend from the Bavarian subsidiary. And of course, skills and responsibilities have also been transferred to Bella Italia. You don't have to be a prophet to predict similar developments at Commerzbank.
They can do consolidation better in Club Méditerranée than here in Germany. Also, there is political support for the creation of international champions. What Unicredit is striving for in the European banking sector, Stellantis has already achieved in the automotive sector. Here, too, the uncompromising behaviour of the group's management is a thorn in the side of many stakeholders. Trade partners are being forced to make costly changes in order to do justice to the new corporate identity. Anyone who doesn't go along is out. Sub-brands such as Opel are gradually being stripped of their competencies. However, the aggressive approach brings economic success. Stellantis achieves an operating margin of 13%, versus 7% at VW. Unicredit's return on equity of just under 20% is more than twice as high as that of Commerzbank or Deutsche Bank.
Berlin may smile at Italy and France because of their debt. In terms of industrial policy, however, there is no reason to feel superior. On the contrary, the lack of planning in this area is the cause of many business location problems. A current example is the chip industry. The government was prepared to put 10 billion euros on the table to lure Intel to Magdeburg and reduce its dependence on Taiwanese semiconductor production. Now that Intel has pushed back the start of construction due to its own massive problems, a dispute has broken out over whether the money would not be better used to plug budget holes – as if this is the most pressing problem for a country that is lagging in terms of growth, but is better off than other industrialised nations in terms of debt. Has the dependency problem for semiconductors gone away? Wouldn't new efforts be needed now that the Intel plan has failed?
What's more, neither the current nor the previous federal government seems to be aware of the importance of the finance industry. During the financial crisis, Commerzbank was first forced to swallow up Dresdner, and then provided with just enough capital to survive. Because of fears that banks that were too big would pose a systemic risk, here, in contrast to other countries, there was a tendency to scrimp rather than save. But a lot has happened in the decade and a half since the financial crisis. Size as a competitive advantage has long been back in vogue. Other countries have bred sharks for which our smaller fish serve at best as morsels. The German government only seems to have recently realised this, after Unicredit came onto the scene. The largest economy in the eurozone is, at best, a spectator when it comes to bank consolidation.
In addition, an ever-growing bureaucracy is ensuring that companies are increasingly preoccupied with themselves. This takes attention away from competition, transformation and expansion opportunities. The latter are then realised by private equity or international strategists. As long as this is not recognised in Berlin, the sell-off is likely to continue. Regardless of whether Unicredit is successful with its pursuit of Commerzbank, a strategy for the financial sector is finally needed. The premise should be apparent to everyone: an internationally competitive financial sector is a basic prerequisite for economic success and not just „nice to have“.