Unicredit's bold move has surprised many Commerzbank shareholders – including the German government. According to its own statements, the Italian bank now owns around 9% of the shares, and the Milan-based group is showing interest in buying more. A takeover, therefore, seems possible, and is causing a commotion: shareholders are hoping for a generous takeover bid, while the trade unions fear massive job cuts.

All eyes are now on the federal government. But despite all the fuss, it should continue to reduce its current 12% stake. It is not its job to stop Unicredit.

It is difficult to say whether a takeover is either do-able or sensible. Equity analysts are already citing synergies in the hundreds of millions annually if the Unicredit subsidiary HypoVereinsbank joins forces with Commerzbank in Germany. This looks good on paper, but the reality is admittedly more complex.

With Postbank, rival Deutsche Bank has learnt how laborious and protracted integration can be. The German banking industry leader itself discussed taking over Commerzbank in 2019, but refrained from doing so.

It should not be up to the federal government to evaluate any takeover plans. Following Commerzbank's recovery, the state is gradually withdrawing from the shareholders group, and almost 16 years after supporting Commerzbank during the financial crisis, this step is overdue. The German government should also leave entrepreneurial decisions to the remaining shareholders – anything else would be inconsistent.

The preservation of jobs is only of limited use as an argument in favour of the German government's involvement in any move by Unicredit, though the government should not be indifferent to the dismissal of people who might find it challenging to find a new job. As long as it still owns shares, the government should undoubtedly have a say in severance payments, retraining, or the bank's plans to reduce the workforce over a more extended period. But a permanent blockade would not be justified. Germany has an interest in companies that are as efficiently organised and healthy as possible. This sometimes requires takeovers and job cuts – and whether this is the case at Commerzbank should mainly be determined by the owners. Branch closures and consolidation characterise the German banking industry, and even the federal government cannot prevent this.

However the size risk remains: Unicredit is already a giant with total assets of 799 billion euros, and Commerzbank would add 560 billion euros. After a takeover, the centre of power would be in Milan, and no longer in Frankfurt. Such a colossus would need strict supervision and sufficient capital. But a European banking market is politically desirable. Standardised supervision by the ECB and a joint resolution institution have also been created to support pan-European banks. The instruments for monitoring large cross-border credit groups are in place. It would be equivalent to a political U-turn if the federal government were to fundamentally oppose a move from Unicredit.

It is far from clear whether a takeover will actually take place. Commerzbank is worth almost 18 billion euros on the stock exchange, of which Unicredit owns less than a tenth. It remains to be seen whether it will have the necessary billions, and patience, for a takeover. It also remains to be seen whether ECB Banking Supervision would authorise Unicredit's steps. According to the Reuters news agency, the management of Commerzbank is resisting a takeover. The the behaviour of the many smaller shareholders remains uncertain.

Unicredit's share price remained largely unchanged after the announcement on 11 September, so its own shareholders are not showing any takeover euphoria. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel is wise enough not to commit himself publicly. But the direction is clear: if the German government wants to sell more Commerzbank shares, Unicredit could come knocking again. If it offers the highest price, its bid for the government shares should be accepted.