It is unlikely to have any impact on 2024, either in terms of consumption or on corporate investment decisions. That looks different for 2025. However, the forecasts here are still subject to great uncertainty.

There is still a lot of consumer restraint and a high savings rate among private households. In this situation, early elections could theoretically have two effects: If there is a lengthy political power vacuum, the already not overly optimistic forecasts could turn out even worse. This is less about the exact timing of the election and more about the time afterwards, i.e. the formation of a government and the clarity of the political leadership. However, I also see the opposite scenario as realistic.

A change of mood among the population with the hope of a new beginning. If a certain optimism spreads, this can also boost private consumption. It can go both ways. That's why politicians now have such a great responsibility to act as quickly as possible.

The situation is similar. If there is a clear majority decision in the election and clear political guidelines for the future, this could also have a very positive effect on investment decisions. On the other hand, the opposite could also happen.

From an economic perspective, this is not entirely insignificant. For example, key parts of the growth initiative from the summer have not been concluded yet, such as the Western Balkans Regulation which relates labour shortages, or the planned declining balance depreciation. In its new forecast for 2025, the German Council of Economic Experts has only taken into account those parts of the growth initiative that have already been implemented. Overall, the package could have a positive GDP effect of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points next year. That would be around half of the effect that the Ampel coalition had actually hoped for.

The prospects for the German export economy are not very rosy anyway. The Chinese export market is no longer working so well for Germany. And the USA has actually become an even more important partner than it already was. If Donald Trump has now set himself the goal of reducing German exports for his presidency, this is of course not very helpful. Overall, however, we are currently unable to predict any really major Trump effect on the German economy for 2025. But we will also have to continue to monitor the issue of inflation.

Trump has many plans that could further fuel inflation. These include new tariffs. This would initially lead to price increases in the USA, but could also be of concern to Europe. We in Europe are currently expecting further interest rate cuts by the ECB and the corresponding economic effects. This could be called into question.

Yes, he succeeded in mobilising people because Americans could feel the issue in their bones. People are affected when they suddenly have to pay 20% or 40% more for their weekly shopping than before. And even if wages are adjusted, the fear of price increases will not go away so quickly. The issue of inflation will therefore probably influence the German election campaign.

Indeed it is. It's a general issue of digitalisation, where Germany has been lagging behind for some time. And I'm not just talking about failures on the part of politicians, but also on the part of companies. Digitalisation has perhaps worked quite well in production processes. The situation is different in other areas.

You can take investment in IT and digital products per working hour, for example. Ten years ago, Germany was at the bottom of this ranking within Europe, and now it is in the lower midfield. Another indicator is new products that make life easier, such as payment options using a mobile phone or offers like „buy now, pay later“. Not much came from the banks here. In Germany, digital innovations mostly came from fintechs or big techs. In other EU countries, banks have also tended to work with fintechs. This also exists to a much lesser extent in Germany.

No. Fintechs are simply too small for that. For example, they still only play a barely perceptible role in lending. Fintechs do not pose any risks. That's why the German Council of Economic Experts is also in favour of regulatory sandboxes, so that companies have the opportunity to try out new digital products and processes. This would also allow the regulatory authorities to use this type of practical test to observe where new dangers could arise. We would also be in favour of open banking regulation, as is being discussed at EU level.

This could eliminate competitive disadvantages of the new providers compared to conventional banks and customers could hope for more favourable conditions. By analysing digital footprints, the big techs are already able to offer better credit conditions for certain people. I would also expand open banking in this direction. Then the big techs would also have to hand over data to the banks. It's about promoting competition. There are currently no signs of growth in the digital space. And in Europe, we would be international pioneers with such open banking regulation.

The risks posed by the big techs, which also offer financial services, are currently not given enough attention. This also applies to competition law. It's mainly about the interfaces between financial services and the rest of the company, and the resulting market power. We should consider whether tech companies should not be forced to spin off their financial transactions into separate units, in order to be able to supervise liquidity or solvency requirements more practically and efficiently.

We need to take a closer look at what big tech companies do with their data, so that there is a level playing field. Of course, we also need to cater to the German population and their preferences in order to increase the acceptance of digital services. We have seen time and again that many people are critical of paying by mobile phone or using credit cards online, and are concerned about what happens to their data.

My hope would be that these companies will improve the cost structures in the German market. In other countries, costs have already fallen more significantly than here. Of course, I hope that the user-friendliness of financial services will increase significantly once again. The market could also improve in terms of inclusion, for example if fintechs were to recognise older sections of the population as potential customers. More people could also participate in the stock and capital markets through greater digitalisation and neobrokers.