Restaurants, retailers, concert organisers – the months of high inflation have affected everyone. The subdued consumer mood has ruined business for many, and some in the catering industry, in particular, have long since given up. The mood in the travel industry, on the other hand, is entirely different: Tour operators are rushing from one increase in turnover to the next, and Germans, specifically, seem to be spending money on travelling like there's no tomorrow. Revenue growth is also expected for the current year.

However, a look at the figures for 2023 shows a more nuanced picture. Although sales have risen sharply, the number of travellers has fallen – 15% fewer people travelled with tour operators last year than before the pandemic. As a result, per capita expenditure on holiday trips has risen – sharply. Travel managers are talking about price increases of 20 to 30% in some cases, which is significantly higher than inflation. This has to do with a shortage of flight capacity in particular, but also with increased costs in holiday destinations – hotels also have to spend more on electricity and staff, especially in times of labour shortages. All of this is being added to the holiday price, and some hotels are also increasing their margins a little. Holidaymakers are currently still going along with this.

However, the shrinking number of travellers also shows that fewer and fewer people can afford to spend money on travel in the face of massive actual wage losses. Initially, second and third holidays are being cancelled, and people are switching to cheaper destinations – it is no coincidence that holiday destinations in the eastern Mediterranean, such as Turkey, are becoming increasingly popular. Then, for cost reasons, the family switches from the aeroplane to the car and ends up staying at home. Some people have long since been spending their holidays on their balconies because high rents and the rising cost of living mean that they no longer have a budget left over for travelling. On the other hand, there are holidaymakers who (have to) spare no expense in order to have a good time during their time off work – especially after the pandemic. Lufthansa, for example, has registered more and more private travellers in its Business and First Class.

However, this development is not suitable for mass tourism. This is because the bread-and-butter business of many tour operators still depends on transporting half the country southwards. Although groups such as Tui have expanded the luxury segment in recent years, this does not usually compensate for the erosion at the other end of the price range. Specialist tour operators, who have always focused on high-priced holidays, are doing better. Winning new customers is now on the agenda for all of them.

Nevertheless, this is unlikely to be easy, as prices have not yet reached the end of the line. The German Travel Association expects only a „moderate“ increase in 2024. However, holiday prices are not solely dependent on the travel industry. For example, the planned increase in the German aviation tax is expected to make air travel more expensive. Delivery problems at aircraft manufacturers may also have an impact on holiday spending. Ryanair, for example, has indicated that the shortage of supply could lead to higher prices due to delays in aircraft deliveries.

In the medium term, stricter environmental regulations will also drive up the price of travelling. This is because if aeroplanes have to fill their tanks with more and more expensive sustainable aviation fuel, this will drive up the airlines' costs – which they will have to add to the price of tickets. When hotels have to invest in new, more environmentally friendly heating systems, the cost is passed on to guests. If the cruise industry finances more climate-friendly propulsion systems for its ships, the fares for the popular cruises will rise. As a result, travelling is increasingly becoming a luxury that fewer and fewer people can afford. It is questionable whether the travel industry can remain a growth industry against this backdrop.