We had been expecting for some time that the data situation would eventually prompt the ECB to move faster on rates. It has now done so quicker than we originally thought. The economic recovery is weaker than the ECB expected. The data of the past few months has apparently raised so many question marks for the central bank that it could no longer ignore them.

Our forecast is that the ECB will announce a rate cut of 25 basis points at every meeting until June 2025. The deposit rate would then be 2%. But even then it won't be the end. We expect two more easings by the end of next year, then to a deposit rate of 1.5%.

I find it difficult to argue why the neutral interest rate should be higher than before 2019. Of course, the neutral interest rate cannot be determined exactly, but I assume that it is more likely to be 1.5% than 2% or higher. So no, even after these interest rate cuts, monetary policy would not be expansionary in my view.

Let's take the example of the labour market: a shortage of labour could lead to higher wages and higher inflation. However, fewer people of working age could also reduce overall economic demand, which would dampen inflation. Researchers are divided on whether demographic change ultimately leads to structurally higher inflation or not. This is also the case with the other issues you mentioned. I therefore think it is wrong to assume that inflation will definitely be structurally higher. And if the ECB's monetary policy were to be geared towards this, it would be a major risk.

Monetary policy is perhaps much more restrictive than the ECB assumes. The ECB is slowing down the economy more than it realises. It is therefore very sensible that it has lowered interest rates again, giving the economy more room to breathe. The ECB is currently far too restrictive. It needs to cut interest rates significantly.

The ECB's predictions on the development of private consumption and private investment in particular are quite optimistic. And these assumptions do not seem to be materialising. However, I have to say that we are all collectively somewhat surprised at how savings rates have developed since last summer.

That is difficult to answer. A comparatively high savings rate can perhaps be explained by a permanent effect of the energy crisis on the long-term outlook. But the second question is why the savings rate is actually rising again. This raises a number of other questions. In any case, it is not good news for the economy in the eurozone.

Monetary policy does have a noticeable effect on the economy. However, it is still too early to see the effects on the real economy, due to the delayed impact of monetary policy. We can already see that credit conditions are not being tightened any further. If they then become looser in the coming months, this will relieve the economy, and should make growth somewhat easier.

Yes, there is already a risk scenario today. If the economy continues to fail to gain momentum, and the inflation outlook could fall well below 2% from 2026, then this should be discussed at the ECB.