It has been more than a decade since the last new admission to the European Union (EU). And twenty years have already passed since the major eastward enlargement. The integration of the Western Balkan states has been stalled for a long time. And negotiations with Turkey are on ice. But at the latest since Russia started its war of aggression against Ukraine, there has been a rethink in Brussels. Expansion policy is increasingly being seen within the EU institutions as a geopolitical instrument. It is now also about „expansion into strategically important areas“, as the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) recently said.

There are now nine candidate countries. With Kosovo, which has not yet received this official status, there would be ten. A year and a half ago, the EU Parliament called for the conditions and processes for access to the EU to be reformed, and for all accession negotiations to be concluded by 2030. The outcome of the European elections in June is likely to play a decisive role in whether this stance is maintained. The same applies to the EU Commission's commitment in this matter.

In his speech about Europe at Charles University in Prague in 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also spoke of an expanded European Union, with 30 or even 36 member states. He argued that the expansion of the EU is necessary to ensure Europe's stability, and protect common values. Scholz supports the stronger geopolitical orientation of the EU promoted by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, it is clear that it is also up to the EU itself to implement reforms before accepting additional member states. In particular, this concerns the decision-making structures and the rules on consensus, for example in the joint foreign and security policy.

In Prague, the Chancellor warned that each additional member state also increases the risk „that a single country will prevent all others from making progress, with its veto“. In recent years, smaller countries such as Hungary have already made extensive use of the right of veto. Will they now be willing to give up this potential for blackmail and power so easily?

In any case, enlargement would have many institutional consequences at all levels of the EU, as the German Economic Institute (IW) showed in a study published in March. New members from Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans (excluding Turkey) would be entitled to one sixth of the seats in the European Parliament. Germany would therefore lose around five seats. Ukraine would be the fifth-largest national delegation in the Parliament.

The IW also points to shifts in power within the Council, in which decisions are usually made by a qualified majority of member states. According to the Cologne-based economists, expansion could shift the economic focus of the Council towards less economic freedom. „This would make it more difficult for the more liberal bloc, to which Germany also belongs, to prevent decisions by blocking minority or to enforce decisions by majority vote“.

Added to this are the financial burdens for the current member states. None of the candidate countries currently has even half of the current average EU per capita gross domestic product. All countries would be net recipients from the EU budget for many years, which would have to be reorganised both on the revenue and expenditure side. According to the Hertie School/Jacques Delors Centre, however, the impact of expansion on the EU's Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) is far from being as significant as generally expected. In a study, the think tank points to the inherent adjustment mechanisms that already exist in the MFF, to cushion significant fluctuations in disbursements to individual member states, including caps on national allocations.

According to the Hertie School, if Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia were to join, none of the current EU members would go from being net recipients to net contributors. There would be additional annual expenditure totalling around 19 billion euros, which is barely more than 10% of the current EU budget.

Nevertheless, scepticism prevails among the population – especially in Western Europe. The think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) recently surveyed public opinion in a number of countries to mark the 20th anniversary of the major eastward expansion. In Germany, despite the geopolitical crises, only 28% of respondents were in favour of a rapid next round of EU enlargement. 50% were against. Ukraine still received the highest approval ratings with 37%. The picture was similar in countries such as France and Austria.

This unease could also stem from concerns about a possible softening of the strict accession criteria (Copenhagen criteria). In this context, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs has taken note of accusations that the EU would be giving undue support to autocratic governments and thus lose credibility: "Geopolitical considerations threaten to outweigh or push governance deficits into the background“, it wrote. All EU institutions have recently stepped up the pace for the next round of expansion. Whether the pace is kept up, or other options are chosen to gradually bring the candidate countries closer, will also depend on the EU elections.