Nokia's business "has never been so dependent on the macroeconomy"
Mr. Wirén, Nokia has given a cautious outlook for the current year. Will the Mobile World Congress (MWC) improve the situation, are your customers ready to invest?
For us, the MWC is mainly an opportunity to meet a large number of customers in one place and thus get an impression of how they have started the new year and what the industry as a whole is doing. So we mainly get the big picture here and typically go into intensive business discussions afterwards.
In your forecast, it is striking that you have given a broad range for both the operating result and the cash conversion rate, i.e. a result of between EUR 2.3 and 2.9 billion and a cash conversion rate of 30% to 60%. Can you be more specific now?
That depends very much on the market environment. In our industry, business is normally strongly driven by technology, which means that customers invest in technological progress. There are also a number of other factors that do not normally play a central role. Last year, however, we experienced a dramatic turnaround in interest rates. After a long phase of very low interest rates, the central banks raised them very quickly and very significantly.
How did this affect you in concrete terms?
Our customers have started to adjust their investment plans in grid technology during the year, something they do not normally do. That is what is new about the current situation. Our business has never been so dependent on the macroeconomy. Previously it was always more influenced by technology, but now the situation has reversed.
When do you expect the situation to change?
There is still a lot of uncertainty on the market at the moment. Companies are taking a wait-and-see approach. Observers expect interest rates to fall this year, however not too soon, not in this quarter. These initial hopes have been dashed and the first steps are now likely to be taken in the second half of the year. We also expect business to pick up then.
As far as shareholder remuneration is concerned, you recently emphasized the importance of share buybacks. Does this mean that you want to make greater use of this instrument in the future and focus less on dividends?
When it comes to capital allocation, research and development is our top priority. We believe we need to be at the forefront of technology in order to gain market share and ultimately achieve better prices and higher margins. That's why M&A comes second, as we may be able to position ourselves better through acquisitions. The distribution to shareholders comes afterwards, in two ways: through the regular dividend and through share buybacks, when we give surplus capital to investors.
How do you define excess capital?
We have changed our policy in this regard and have switched from a gross cash to a net cash approach. Our policy is to maintain net cash reserves of 10% to 15% of sales. Whenever we exceed this range and have accumulated more cash, we consider how we can reduce it again. At the end of last year, we had liquidity amounting to 19% of sales. In our view, dividends are recurring and increasing remuneration for shareholders, whereas this surplus liquidity was more of a one-off effect and certainly not a predictable recurring effect. That's why we choose the share buyback here.
You mentioned M&A. Are you currently looking at a specific acquisition?
In our industry, technology sometimes develops very quickly. We are constantly looking to see if there is anything we need to add to our portfolio. We also look to see whether an acquisition could help us to improve our offering to our customers. And the third point is to check whether an acquisition can help us to get to market faster.
What is the scale of an acquisition?
Well, we are not planning a large acquisition, we are looking at smaller companies, not necessarily start-ups, with which we can fill a gap.
At Nokia Technologies, you have recently extended a number of patent contracts, which means that you will receive reliable income. Over what period do the contracts extend?
That varies from case to case. But we have a large number of fairly long-term contracts, and this shows the strength of our patent portfolio. We have over 6,000 essential patents for 5G and around 20,000 patent families.
Patent revenue is a very high-margin business. What do the latest contracts mean for cash flow this year?
We will initially receive a good 400 million euros in back payments this year for the period of default during which we did not have a contract. However, we have received advance payments of around 700 million euros, which in turn have to be offset.
Are there any plans to open up the Technologies division to investors as part of the strategic review?
No. We have four business areas, Nokia Technologies is one of them. We have no plans to spin it off or open it up to investors.
The core business is very cyclical. What about initiatives to stabilize the business and generate more recurring revenues?
Currently, telecom network operators still make up 80% of our customer base. However, we have started to increase the share of corporate customers, i.e. to expand the business of our Enterprise division, which builds network solutions directly for companies and web scalers. This division accounted for 10% of sales at the end of last year. In addition, we have also started to offer the 5G core network as-a-service, so that customers pay for the network on an ongoing basis instead of a one-off purchase price. We are the pioneer among the equipment suppliers.
Do you have a medium-term target for the share of revenue that the Enterprise division should achieve?
The business grew by 16% last year, significantly faster than the core business, and market researchers assume that it will continue to expand strongly.
Won't this bring you into conflict with your traditional customers, who want to sell enterprise networks or campus networks themselves?
We don't actually see any conflict. In cases where mobile spectrum is required, we build the networks hand in hand with the telecommunications companies, so to speak. And when it comes to other network solutions, the competitive spectrum is much broader anyway. The companies contact their IT service provider or us directly or a sales partner.
Is the business also more profitable than the traditional business?
We are very satisfied with the margins we achieve in this business, but I can't narrow it down any further.
Recently, there have been more and more attempts to install so-called Open RAN technology, which should have the advantage for telecommunications companies that they can use the equipment of different vendors together. Is this actually a threat to Nokia?
With Open RAN, some interfaces of the antenna network are opened up so that third-party technology can be integrated. However, network operators are then faced with the challenge of integrating technology from two different suppliers. This means that they need a system integrator. And that increases complexity and costs money. The Open RAN contracts currently concluded are therefore often only based on the technology of one supplier, whose interfaces have been opened up without connecting anyone else. Market researchers expect a 24% share of Open RAN networks by 2027, but only 8% are actually likely to be equipped by several suppliers.
Is that even a sensible business idea, then?
We believe that we will definitely benefit with our technology if the proportion of Open RAN in networks increases. In other words, we see just as many opportunities as risks for our market share. However, the growth is lower than expected.
Why doesn't Nokia benefit more from Huawei's blockade in many Western markets?
We have increased our market share in 5G from 23% to 29% since the beginning of 2022. In cases where a telecom company has decided to change its vendor base, we have actually won the deal in half of all tenders. So, we are gaining market share. And we expect to be the first choice for critical network elements.
What was the reason why Nokia lost the 14 billion dollar contract from AT&T?
AT&T is still an important customer of ours, but chose a competitor for cost reasons. We had a 35% share of the AT&T antenna network, the other 65%. It was therefore a rational decision for AT&T to award the contract to the competitor for cost reasons. There were no technological reasons.
You announced a major round of restructuring in October. Will that be enough now, in any case?
That's something we didn't like to do, but we felt compelled to do in view of the market situation. We initially introduced short-term cost-cutting measures in the hope that demand would recover. However, this did not happen. We therefore had to take action. Depending on how the market develops, we will cut 7,200 to 7,700 jobs. The cost savings will then amount to 800 million euros or, at the upper end, 1.2 billion euros.