Anyone who had hoped for more clarity from the same-day presentation of the quarterly results of Unicredit and Commerzbank was disappointed. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel is still refusing to reveal whether, when, and on what terms, he is planning a majority takeover of the German competitor. The lack of clarity increases the pressure on Bettina Orlopp, who was recently promoted to CEO of Commerzbank.

However, the banker has been on board long enough to master such situations. As in the days when the activist investor Cerberus gave her predecessor Martin Zielke a hard time, there is only one thing that can help now: Put the pedal to the metal. If the bank succeeds in permanently increasing its stock market valuation, through more ambitious targets and a consistent capital return policy, Unicredit will have to shelve the project. Ultimately, Orcel will also have to explain to his investors why the acquisition is worthwhile. They will not give him unlimited leeway, especially as the realisation of cost synergies promises to be an expensive undertaking.

The dip in Commerzbank's share price on the day of the third quarter earnings announcement was largely insignificant. This is because Unicredit also came under heavy pressure on the day after the presidential elections in the USA. In addition, the share price movements are currently likely to be characterised above all by the hedging transactions of the various investors who want to cash in on the merger fantasies.

Whether Orlopp's team will succeed in raising the valuation to a new level remains to be seen. Until then, Orcel would do well to play for time. After all, the owner control procedure at the European Central Bank (ECB) for a stake above 10% stake is still ongoing. Whatever happens, the Italian bank will win in any case: Either market share in Germany, or the share price gain if it does decide to part with the cheaply acquired Commerzbank shares.