„Our expenditure on research and development will increase“
Mr. Toepfer, how have the first months of 2024 gone for Airbus?
We started the year 2024 well. In the first two months, we delivered 79 civil aircraft, which is 13 more than in the same period last year. The figures for January and February show that we are on track to achieve our goal of around 800 deliveries this year.
Airbus shares have gained over 40% in value since the beginning of 2023. What are the main drivers of this increase?
In 2023, we demonstrated that we can significantly increase production. Investors trust that we can achieve this again this year. If we reach our goal of increasing the production rate of the A320 series to 75 aircraft per month by 2026, Airbus will achieve significant efficiency gains, which would positively impact profitability.
The dividend yield is 2%. How do you view this?
We are significantly increasing the dividend, reflecting our positive cash flow. However, investors focus more on the outlook than on the dividend yield. They trust that we will continue to increase cash flow.
Boeing has been accused of focusing too much on shareholders and increasing its stock price in recent years, while neglecting safety. What about Airbus?
We certainly don't do that. I don't want to comment on what Boeing does. At Airbus, we generally invest with a very long-term perspective. We are already thinking about the next generation of hydrogen-based aircraft, and a possible successor to the A320 in the next decade. In our capital allocation, we have a strong focus on the long-term viability of the company.
How much do you invest in research and development? How will this evolve in the coming years?
Last year, we spent around 3 billion euros on research and development. This will continue to increase in the coming years, not disproportionately to revenue, but roughly in proportion to it. Within this budget, we still have many projects related to our current portfolio, such as the A321XLR or the development of the A350 freighter version. However, as time goes on, more of these projects will be replaced by future technologies.
Speaking of the A321XLR, is the schedule still on track?
Entry into service is planned for the third quarter of this year, as announced. The aircraft is basically ready. We are now discussing the certification process. So we are very confident that the timetable will be met.
Are there any specific requirements from regulatory authorities?
Yes, there are specific requirements related to the special features of the aircraft. It has a Rear Centre Tank, and there are special safety requirements that need to be certified. We are currently in that process.
What are Airbus's pre-commitments for ramping up A320 series production to the target rate?
Pre-commitments are indeed required from us, but also from suppliers. For example, we made a pre-investment in personnel last year and hired about 13,000 new employees. Now these employees need to be trained for our processes. At the same time, we are expanding our global network of A320 final assembly lines with two more, one in China and one in the US. So by the end of 2025, we will have a total of ten.
What about the suppliers? According to Dassault, some are facing minor financial problems.
Today, we have a much closer relationship with our supply chain than we did two or three years ago. Our procurement team works much closer with our suppliers, including the suppliers of our suppliers, to detect bottlenecks early on. Most of these are not financial in nature but operational. In very rare cases, it is about bringing suppliers together with a bank. What we avoid is direct financial support.
But suppliers are still under a lot of pressure, right?
Absolutely. It is no secret that we have a bottleneck on the engine side. This is less of a risk for 2024 because we have very reliable contracts and agreements with Pratt & Whitney and CFM. There still needs to be a significant ramp-up there. The same goes for many other parts, including cabin parts, and auxiliary power units.
Airbus has had to postpone the production ramp-up several times. Is the target to achieve this by 2026 now the final word from management?
Our orientation is clear. Although we did not achieve our originally targeted production goal in 2022, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we did so in 2023. However, we are still in an environment that includes significant risks.
You also intend to increase A220 production. Does the programme pay off seven years after the acquisition?
The programme is not yet profitable. It will be profitable when we achieve a monthly production rate of 14, as planned for 2026. We need to manage the industrial ramp-up to a rate that allows us to distribute fixed costs over a sufficiently large number of aircraft. And that's the case with a rate of 14.
Airbus is said to be interested in buying a Spirit facility in Northern Ireland that produces wings for the A220.
Spirit Aerosystems is an important supplier for us, including for the A220. Therefore, we have a strong interest in a very stable relationship. That's why we support Spirit operationally with our teams to work on improvements, and we are discussing with Spirit what the best option is. The outcome of these discussions will be the result of our conversations with Spirit.
Boeing is considering buying back Spirit. What would that mean for Airbus?
The important thing is that we have a stable relationship with this supplier.
And when do you expect clarity on that?
That's hard to say. That also depends on other people. The timeline Boeing has is difficult to predict.
Based on adjusted EBIT, Airbus achieved an operating margin of 8.9% in 2023. What margin targets are you setting?
We have not so far communicated any medium-term targets in this regard. First, we need to advance the production ramp-up. Then we can stabilize production at a high level. This is a prerequisite for working through the extensive order backlog. We are approaching record levels of deliveries, similar to those in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time, the Airbus Group achieved a margin of 10%.
In 2023 the performance of the Aircraft and Helicopter businesses was above the average for the Airbus group, while Defence and Space lagged significantly behind. What accounts for this difference?
The Defence and Space division experienced financial burdens in the second half of 2023, affecting individual satellite programmes. The required revaluation of these programmes reduced our result by around 600 million euros.
What are your expectations regarding the profitability of Defence and Space?
In the medium term, the division is expected to achieve an operating margin in the high single-digit percentage range.
How is the restructuring of the division going?
It's going well. We aim to achieve higher autonomy and entrepreneurial responsibility within the respective business lines of the division. To this end, at the beginning of this year, we transferred 15,000 employees from central areas and centralized operations into three areas: Air Power, Space Systems, and Connected Intelligence.
In 2023, defence accounted for just over 9% of the group's order backlog, totaling 53 billion euros. What levels do you expect in the medium to long term, as NATO countries increase their defence budgets?
Geopolitical conditions drive our defence business. Last year, we achieved the highest order intake in the history of the company in the Defence and Space segment, with 15.7 billion euros.
When do you expect this to positively impact the profitability of the division?
It takes about three to five years for this to be reflected in the results.
You had considered acquiring Atos' Big Data & Security division but then decided against it. Was the price too high? What went wrong?
We always said that there was no certainty that our discussions with Atos would result in a contract or transaction. Therefore, we conducted a due diligence process to confirm that this acquisition would make sense for Airbus both strategically and financially and operationally. After weeks of intensive discussions, the board and top management decided not to pursue the transaction further. We concluded that the risks outweighed the opportunities for Airbus.
How sizeable is your war chest for acquisitions?
From my perspective, our financial capacity is not the limiting factor in making acquisitions. Rather, it is important for us to find the right targets that can advance us in terms of content. When you think about growth in the commercial aviation sector, there isn't really anything we could acquire. In the helicopter sector, I would also say that we would quickly reach antitrust limits. So it will be more about looking for capabilities and functional things that can advance us – such as digitization.
Which areas are particularly crucial for digitization?
Take the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), for example. It's not just the aircraft that is the crucial element, but the entire system surrounding it. This includes a so-called Combat Cloud, where various systems are interconnected as part of the FCAS, such as manned aircraft with unmanned companion aircraft. In this Combat Cloud, cybersecurity and real-time data management play a significant role. Data security and computing are increasingly important for our civil aircraft division as well. Therefore, the strategy to enter more into the field of digitization is important not only for the Defence and Space division, but for the entire group. It is in this context that our recently announced agreement to acquire Cologne-based IT and cybersecurity company Infodas should also be seen.
Apart from the Spirit facility, are you specifically looking at other acquisition opportunities?
We are always looking around to see if there are opportunities that arise.
What role does AI, artificial intelligence, play?
It falls into the same category as digitization. Of course, there are many projects that we are already doing on a smaller scale, also in the financial area. For example, how can relatively standardized processes be handled by machines? We can certainly imagine doing this on a larger scale as well. So that's also part of the search field we have regarding digitization.
In 2023, the aircraft division recorded record orders. Some airlines have ordered hundreds of jets. How many of these orders do you see as candidates for cancellation?
A very, very small part. There is always a certain delta, and you can see that in the figures for gross orders and net orders. There are situations where an airline cancels an order. This is a vanishingly small number. Moreover, this is not an immediate financial loss for us, because airlines make pre-delivery payments. These are payments made before we even start producing anything. And these payments are contractually owed to us. So this is not a challenge that keeps us awake at night.
So far, 2024 has seen rather modest aircraft orders.
Last year, with 2,094 net orders, we set an absolute record. View that in relation to the 735 deliveries. It would be virtually impossible to bring in such a large number of orders every year. Our order backlog would grow endlessly. So it is completely natural that after the extraordinary year 2023, the order intake normalizes a bit.
Meet the Person
Thomas Toepfer, born in 1972, has been the Chief Financial Officer of Airbus since September. With a PhD in business administration, he previously held the CFO position at Covestro. His career includes roles at McKinsey, Kion, and Karstadt. A native of Hamburg, he spent six months as an exchange student at a high school in Bordeaux. He studied at the Otto Beisheim School of Management (WHU) in Koblenz.