Rheinmetall CEO Papperger: „Conventional warfare is back“
Mr Papperger, Rheinmetall's share price has just reached an all-time high again. In terms of sales, Rheinmetall is the 26th largest defence company in the world. Its market capitalisation doubled in 2024 and, at around 26 billion euros, is higher than that of Vonovia. Is there still any upside room?
There is still a lot of upside, because we are nowhere near full production capacity. And if you look at the ammunition production side alone, Lithuania is now being added, Ukraine is being aded, as well as Lower Saxony plant with the rocket engine plant and the artillery plant. If we grow to a turnover of 20 billion euros by 2027 as planned, it is also feasible to double earnings by that time. Otherwise the multiples would no longer be right. We therefore believe that we still have considerable upside potential.
The German government wanted Rheinmetall to take the lead on the new European battle tank, together with the Franco-German joint venture KNDS. What has become of these plans?
We have done that. Rheinmetall and KNDS are the partners who are building the tank. KNDS consists of KNDS France, i.e. the state-owned French company Nexter, and KNDS Germany, the former KMW, and now Thales has joined as a fourth partner. Unfortunately, we are not as fast as we would all like to be with the Main Ground Combat System. To be honest, we are relatively slow. Relatively little has happened in the last five years. We could be faster, which is why we have launched an interim programme with the Rheinmetall Panther main battle tank. And when the MGCS is hopefully ready in 2040, Rheinmetall will also play an essential part in it.
Is the Panther to replace the Leopard?
Well, the Italians have opted for the Panther, and the reason why they have chosen the Panther– that is what the Italians say – is because it is technologically more advanced than the Leopard, which was launched in the 1980s, particularly in terms of its digitalisation capability. We are naturally delighted to have such a large customer as Italy with such a large order. In total, the Infantry Fighting Vehicle, the battle tanks and the support vehicles for Italy are worth 23 billion euros.
There are increasing signs that an alliance of willing European states wants to launch an armaments fund worth 500 billion euros. This is to be filled with jointly issued bonds. Can you foresee what this means for Rheinmetall?
We are one of the big players in Europe, and I am in favour of such a fund – also because we need more unity among European countries. I assume that this will result in further considerable potential for Rheinmetall. It is additional capital that will be invested in the security of Europe. Rheinmetall will certainly receive a very reasonable share of this additional capital in the form of orders.
Can Rheinmetall beat rival General Dynamics in the USA in the competition for the successor to the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle?
We believe so. Otherwise, we wouldn't be competing at all. But time will tell – the customer decides. We are doing very well at the moment. We have very good technology in the USA and have taken the right steps with the XM30 infantry fighting vehicle that was put out to tender. We have invested around one billion dollars in the acquisition of the US vehicle specialist Loc Performance to document operational readiness. The acquisition brings us an additional 1,000 skilled employees. We have to be able to produce in the USA, and we can do that now. As a result of the acquisition, we have four additional large plants in the United States. The largest plant has 80,000 square metres of production space.
Do you want to tap into the US market through acquisitions?
You have to invest in the USA. You can't serve the USA from Europe. We have to manufacture in the USA, and we are now in a position to do so.
Of course I can imagine another acquisition in the USA.
You have just bought Loc. Can you imagine more?
Of course, I can imagine another acquisition in the USA. We also have our sights set on more. But we won't talk about it until we're ready.
Can the joint venture with the Italian defence company Leonardo, which produces in La Spezia, and is based in Rome, become the nucleus for greater consolidation in the European defence industry?
In any case, it is also a major nucleus for the consolidation of land systems – in other words, tanks. It's not just the Italian market but also the export markets that we want to serve from Italy. I am firmly convinced that this joint venture between Rheinmetall and Leonardo will be successful and has the potential to bring in up to 50 billion euros in orders over the next ten years. That is no small amount.
Carlyle has just turned its back on Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems. Are you interested in the warship division?
We are certainly looking at it, but we have not made a decision. It would have to fit into our business model. And, of course, it has to fit into our technology portfolio and profitability level in the long term. That would all have to be scrutinised beforehand. But we haven't got that far yet.
Are there synergies?
There are certainly synergies, but they are far smaller than those that we realise with the acquisition of the Spanish ammunition manufacturer Expal or the US vehicle specialist Loc Performance.
Russia produces many cheap battle tanks every day. In Europe, there are seven different expensive battle tanks. How do you intend to switch from manufacturing to mass production? What can you learn from the car industry?
There aren't that many different tanks. In terms of main battle tanks, the Leopard is the standard tank in Europe. Then there is a small circle of Challengers and a very small circle of Leclercs and the rest. And then there is an offshoot in Italy called Ariete, but these are all relatively small numbers. The rest is Eastern Europe. These are the old Russian tanks. You can't include them. Israel plays a special role in the Merkava. So, if you look at this seriously, there are three main tanks and offshoots of these. People always say that the Americans only have one. That's quite clear – one tank model for one army, the US Army. There aren't two different main battle tanks in Germany, either. It's just that the USA is a bit bigger than Germany. And we always sell Europe as the United States of Europe. But that's not what we are. There's a huge difference between being a federal state like the USA and a union of states like the EU. We realise every day that we can't make decisions the way the US President does.
Nevertheless, there are many people who say that this is manufacturing in Western Europe and mass production in Russia. We would also have to get to this fast, somewhat cheaper, standardised mass production here.
Of course we could do that, but no one places big enough orders. If an order is issued in Russia: „produce 10,000 tanks“, then that's not manufacturing. If an order is placed in Germany to produce 115 tanks, that is manufacturing.
In the case of a larger order, could they operate in the same way as in the car industry?
The car industry has completely different quantities. But let me give you an example of the military trucks that we produce. In Vienna, we have a capacity of 4,000 trucks per year, military trucks, not road rollers, real military vehicles. And when you walk through the factory, you see a production that is very similar to a car production. Of course, if you look at tank production, where we produce maybe 70 or 100 a year, you can't build an assembly line or robots. It doesn't make sense because the investment sum is far too large compared to what comes out. So, if you need orders as large as those in Russia, then we can also expand these plants. We have already shown this with ammunition. With ammunition, we have grown from 70,000 rounds to 700,000 and then soon to 1.4 million. That is fully automated production. And if you take a look at our new ammunition plant in Unterlüß in Lower Saxony next year, you will see that it generates around 1 billion euros in sales with very few people. This is perhaps better automated than many car manufacturers have done.
It is wishful thinking when politicians say: „You have to do mass production“. I always just say: „Then commission it, then we'll do mass production.“
So mass production is simply dependent on the size of the orders?
Why should we be able to do it in the automotive industry and not in the defence industry? It's simply a question of orders. It's wishful thinking when politicians say: „You have to do mass production“. I always just say: „Then commission it, then we'll do mass production.“
Rheinmetall is building a new ammunition factory for 155-millimetre artillery ammunition in Lithuania by 2026. Are there any further expansion plans for artillery?
We are building up artillery production in Lithuania, we are building up in Ukraine, we are building up in Germany. We are doubling powder production in Bavaria, we are doubling powder production, but also artillery production in our six plants in Spain. And we are planning powder production in Romania. In other words, we have six or seven parallel projects that we are currently developing and investing in.
What should the new EU Commission do to make European armaments more efficient?
If you manage to award larger contracts so that we have a scaling effect, then that would be very positive. To achieve this, you need to be able to decide on the budget within the EU. And that can't be the same as with the 1 million rounds – you will remember that the EU said that we would supply one million rounds of artillery, but the EU ordered almost nothing, instead saying that the countries would have to order it. Then, it doesn't help if you only have coordinating power but no monetary power.
Do you think the European defence fund will come soon?
The 500 billion fund must be financed. Who will foot the bill for 500 billion euros? That is the big question mark. Germany now spends 2% of its GDP on defence. If Germany takes over 25% of the 500 billion euro fund, then another 125 billion euros would have to be put in by Germany. The money has to be there. Or you run up debts. But someone has to take responsibility for the debt. There's still a lot to sort out. Those one million rounds of artillery were just a great announcement.
Then the debt brake must be removed in Germany. Or the budget would have to be restructured.
Germany will not pay for this alone. What are the other countries doing that are already in debt to the tune of 140% of GDP?
We employ around 6,000 people per year.
Unlike many other German industrial companies, you can create jobs. How many new jobs will Rheinmetall create in Germany in 2025?
We have hired around 6,000 people per year over the last three years. That's around 18,000 new people who work for us and are highly motivated. Around two-thirds of them are in Germany. We receive around 200,000 applications per year, so we can choose very good people.
American intelligence services are said to have foiled a Russian attack on you. Are you afraid for your life?
I feel very safe. The Federal Republic of Germany and the state of North Rhine-Westphalia are very active in this regard, and I am very satisfied with what is being done – for Rheinmetall's security and also for my security.
You feel well protected. But do you feel very threatened?
I have always had threats. Of course, they have now become even greater because of the war. Anyone who works in this business cannot be thin-skinned. That's the way it is!
Has it always been like this?
It has always been like this. Six years ago, people wearing skull masks stood outside my office, waving scythes around and saying that we were doing the wrong thing and that we didn't understand the world at all. But now we see what is happening in Ukraine and that our business is very important. If you cannot defend democracy and freedom, then you have a problem. Ukraine would no longer exist today without weapons.
NATO is warning the USA against a peace agreement with Russia that would be disadvantageous for Ukraine. When and how do you think this war will end?
I don't know. I don't think anyone can say. I think the new US president is trying to end the war. I don't know whether he will succeed, but it certainly depends on several parties: The US, Europe, Ukraine and Russia. China will at least have a say.
That is the political side. Then there is the military course of the war. From that side, how do you think the war might end?
I think a mistake was made at the beginning. In the first six or ten months, Ukraine should have been given much more support. We saw that the northern flank, which was heading towards Kiev, could have been pushed back. Then, we would certainly have been able to stand up to Russia. Now both have dug in, partly on the Dnieper, and that is difficult to resolve. As long as the West, i.e. the USA and Europe, supports Ukraine, it can defend itself. It will not be able to defend itself on its own because the production of weapons in Ukraine is far less than that in Russia.
Isn't an ammunition factory in Lithuania risky, because Russian planes might fly over the border and bomb the ammunition factory?
If Lithuania is bombed, we would have Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. We are making this investment together with the Lithuanian state, so that the risk for Rheinmetall is limited. But the Baltic states themselves also want to have their capacity, and not be dependent on deliveries from their allies.
They are consciously taking the risk.
Russian missiles would also reach Romania. Do you think that the German sites are safe? The Russian missiles can also reach Germany. What does that mean then? It's always the same. Always! Then Article 5 would come into force.
What is key to strengthening NATO's defense capability against Russia without the USA?
The Europeans will certainly have to invest more, and the discussion that is taking place today about 2% of GDP for defence will probably be shifted towards 3% by President Trump from the investment side. European states will have to adapt because much more money simply has to be spent on security. But if you compare that with the fact that the Americans spend around 3.5% on their military sector, and they are supposed to protect us, then I understand the President saying: „Pay your bills.“ And that is the discussion, that he says: „NATO is all well and good, but I will leave NATO if you don't pay your bills.“ Some have only spent 1%, so they have only paid the personnel costs for having soldiers but have done nothing for innovation, and nothing for building up Europe's defence capability. And if there were then to be an Article 5 case, the USA would immediately be called out: „Please help us!“ That will no longer work.
And if the existing budget should be used better, what would you suggest?
First of all, a deal must be made with the USA. The USA and Europe must be properly coordinated. The country with the greatest financial power in Europe is Germany. If you calculate that today, you know that the 2% will be somewhere between 80 and 85 billion euros and that the 3% will be almost 120 billion euros. If you see that we are at 51 billion euros today, we are missing a lot of money. Ultimately, there will have to be reallocations, which will be difficult because social stability in Germany must, of course, also be maintained. Or something will have to be done with a special budget or with the debt brake. That is a political decision. The positive thing at the moment is that the competence to supply ammunition, but also vehicles in Europe, air defence systems or electronic systems lies very much with us. That is why we are in a good position at the moment and are growing so strongly. With a 40% increase in sales, we are the fastest-growing major defence company. Next year, growth will be around 30%. We have built up the capacity over the last six years and are therefore in a position to deliver.
You have a partnership with the Munich-based AI drone start-up Helsing and with the US drone software company Auterion. What is it about?
We do not have a partnership with Helsing but a memorandum of understanding. We produce the kind of drones that Helsing is planning in presentations from our group, and they have long been in use in Ukraine. Every investor must know where they are investing and who is worth what.
And you want to develop an operating system for drones with Auterion?
Yes. We have our operating systems, but we want to take the best from both worlds. From time to time, we integrate other people's technologies that are fully developed into our systems.
How will Rheinmetall's business in the USA change with the inauguration of President Trump?
I believe that President Trump will force Europe to spend more. I believe that he will make it clear to Europe every day that NATO's protection will not be free. And I can imagine that he will put considerable pressure on German politicians to spend more. And that certainly won't harm our business.
If there is peace in Ukraine, will the need for armaments also decrease?
I don't think so because the warehouses are empty. At the moment, every round of ammunition and every tank we produce is needed immediately. A lot of material has been destroyed by the war. In addition, ammunition is used up immediately. According to their guidelines, NATO forces need ammunition supplies for at least 30 days of fighting, and there are discussions about increasing this basic reserve requirement to 60 days of fighting. There is a shortage of tens of millions of artillery ammunition alone, which is needed to be put into the empty warehouses.
How is the war in Ukraine currently going?
For the last 25 years, we have always been told that tactical nuclear weapons will be used in war. But Russia is the largest nuclear power in the world and is not doing it. Why aren't they doing it? Quite simply because you would destroy the areas where it would be used. And the second point: you would become a pariah if you did that. That is why conventional warfare is back. Russia is better prepared than the West, and we must learn from that. We must prepare for conventional warfare. For that, you need soldiers and material, but above all, you need ammunition. That was underestimated. Now, we have a trench war, and they are battling each other by firing thousands of shells at each other every day. It is a trench war, almost like in the First World War. It is always 200 metres forward, 200 metres backwards. It is a war of attrition, which we are watching with horror. And Ukraine can only win the war of attrition if the West continues to help. Without this support, Ukraine is lost.