The political parties are now entering the „hot phase“ of the federal election campaign, whether in Lübeck, where the Green celebrities started their tour on Monday, or in Stuttgart at the FDP Epiphany meeting taking place at the same time, or in the Seeon monastery in Upper Bavaria at the CSU retreat.

Across Germany, intensive canvassing for ideas for a political new start after the ultimately failed traffic light coalition experiment is now beginning. Seven weeks is an extremely short time for a federal election campaign – even if one of the most important results of February 23 already seems to be clear – Friedrich Merz looks set to be the new Chancellor.

The political debate running up to the election could thus be broken down to the question of the Union's future junior partner. The Social Democrats, who intend to officially elect Olaf Scholz as their candidate for Chancellor next Saturday, are viewed as being in pole position. Realistically speaking only the Greens could displace them. But this assessment of the election too superficial, since it must also take into account, with a view to the economy, reliability and political stability. The outcome of the election will determine how quickly a new, effective government can be formed, and whether it can also provide clear guidance for the next few years.

The future composition of parliament is currently more open than ever before in a federal election campaign. Three other parties might make it into parliament alongside the Union – or twice as many as that. Even though FDP leader Christian Lindner has already announced conditions for joining a new coalition, whether the Liberals will make it over the 5% hurdle again after the coalition collapse debacle is currently more than questionable.

The situation is even more difficult for the Die Linke, despite the „Mission Silverlocke“ involving three party elders. And small parties such as the Free Voters or Volt, which won seats in the most recent European elections, are unlikely to have much of a chance anyway. Even Sahra Wagenknecht has to worry more about her coalition entering the next Bundestag than was expected six months ago. So every percentage point counts.

There is a fear that the resulting intense battle between the parties for attention in an election campaign that is already shortened in time will lead to many expensive promises being made that ultimately cannot be financed and therefore implemented. The draft programmes, which were published shortly before Christmas, already point the way. According to the German Economic Institute (IW), the relief promised by the CDU/CSU for companies and taxpayers totals 89 billion euros. In terms of counter-financing, the Union is hoping for sufficient savings in the citizens' allowance and additional growth, among other things. That is bold, but hardly a solid calculation.

For the SPD, the relief still amounts to a good half of the CDU/CSU's promises, and for the Greens a third. The FDP's promised benefits amount to 138 billion euros. The AfD comes in at 149 billion euros. A life of luxury and no one has to worry about the bill? A lot seems possible in the next seven weeks. German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) boss Marcel Fratzscher warned in a recent interview that the parties were trying to mislead voters with their competition to outdo each other. That was loud and clear, and justified. After all, many of the problems that the traffic light coalition had to contend with will not disappear with the new election.

Where will the many additional billions come from for the modernisation of infrastructure, for the Bundeswehr, or generally to strengthen the business location? The Democratic centrist parties need more realistic answers here. Otherwise, there could be no way around the AfD when forming a government after the 2029 federal election.