In Brussels, speculation is rife about how the parties on the far right will position themselves in the European Parliament after the elections. This question is getting a lot of interest, especially as current forecasts suggest nationalist, Eurosceptic parties can expect significant voting gains in many countries.

Following the bombshell on May 23, when the far-right political family „Identity and Democracy“ (ID) expelled the nine members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right alliance has shrunk by one-sixth to 49. Some observers speculate that the expulsion of the AfD, in turn, has opened the door for Hungary's Fidesz, the party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Fidesz currently has eleven seats in the EU Parliament and, after its withdrawal from the European People's Party (EPP) in 2021, preempting expulsion, is now non-affiliated in the EU Parliament.

In addition to ID, there is also the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction in the European Parliament, generally labeled as „right conservatives“. This includes the party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia), as well as the former government and now the largest opposition party in Poland, the PiS. However, it is not always clear which of the two right-wing groups parties have joined. For example, the French Reconquête under party leader Éric Zemmour and the Spanish Vox under party leader Santiago Abascal Conde belong to the right-conservative bloc, despite their speakers repeatedly positioning themselves on the far-right with racist, Islamophobic, and misogynistic statements.

In this regard, it is anything but easy to predict how parties will group themselves in the new European Parliament. There is widespread speculation that all the right-wing forces could join together to form a common political group. According to the current polling forecasts, this could involve 20% to 25% of the seats, and could thus surpass the Social Democrats, though not the Christian Democrats. Observers, however, point out that the far-right has never succeeded in consolidation, especially since some parties, such as Reconquête and Rassemblement National, compete in their respective countries.