OpinionInitial Public Offerings

The IPO window is open just a crack

The short-lived euphoria for tech IPOs in the USA is not mirrored over here. In Germany, investors are primarily focusing on companies with proven profitability.

The IPO window is open just a crack

For about twelve months, there was mostly a lull in the IPO market in Germany. Only Porsche AG and the United Internet web hosting subsidiary Ionos, along with Thyssenkrupp's hydrogen subsidiary Nucera, made it to the stock exchange. Now, the capital market is picking up pace again. Simultaneously, three German companies are planning an IPO. Financial investor Triton is cashing in on the tank transmission manufacturer Renk and aims for a market capitalization of at least 1.5 billion euros. The subscription period for Schott Pharma, a pharmaceutical packager with the potential to achieve up to 1 billion euros in proceeds – the largest German IPO this year – ends on Wednesday (September 27). In addition, sandal manufacturer Birkenstock plans its debut on Wall Street soon.

Until recently, there was a tailwind from New York, but it is fading once again. Three tech IPOs had initially been successful at least in terms of their first trading day: chip designer Arm, digital marketing company Klaviyo, and food delivery service Instacart. But since the Fed did not rule out even higher interest rates, prices quickly fell back towards the issue price.

Investors cautiously waiting

The IPO window is only slightly ajar. Especially since none of the European IPOs this year so far have resulted in gains, in Germany, investors are cautiously waiting. They are primarily betting on IPOs of companies with proven profitability. Start-ups that merely offer hope for future revenue growth are finding it tough. Only companies with solid business models can take the step to go public.

For both Schott Pharma and Renk, a quarter of the shares will enter free float – sufficient for liquid trading. The previous owners remain anchor shareholders. What investors probably will not like in both cases: the IPO proceeds go entirely to the previous owner. However, the risk of Renk or Schott Pharma ending up like some overvalued startups that debuted in 2021 is low. Both have a high margin, and the previous owners understand that a price discount is needed compared to publicly listed competitors. They have set the valuation at a modest level. For Renk, it's only half of what was hoped for months ago. And with around 16 times EBITDA Schott is asking for significantly less compared to what the listed Italian competitor Stevanato is valued at on Nasdaq.