Interview withLars von Lackum, LEG

„There will be no steep V-shaped recovery“

The CEO of residential property group LEG, Lars von Lackum, talks to Börsen-Zeitung about market developments, rent control laws, and the takeover of Brack Capital Properties.

„There will be no steep V-shaped recovery“

Mr von Lackum, the new year began with the completion of the acquisition of Brack Capital Properties (BCP) announced in November. Does the deal mark the end of the consolidation that began two years ago?

No. We expect the market to stabilise further in 2025, but not yet see a strong upward trend. It is, therefore, a good idea to do both, i.e. to acquire and sell. By September 2024, LEG had sold more than 3,000 units for 330 million euros. A further 3,000 flats are for sale. We will only make additional acquisitions with a sense of proportion. They are subject to the proviso that they increase earnings per share, based on adjusted FFO, and the net asset value per share, i.e. the NTA. In addition, the gearing ratio, which at 48.5% currently exceeds the medium-term target of 45%, must not be adversely affected. Our goal is of course to reduce the LtV.

What are the next steps for BCP?

The increase from 35.5% to 88.2% has been completed. We paid 45 euros per BCP share, which represents a discount of 48% on the NTA. There is an agreement for the acquisition of the remaining 10.1% stake of the previous major shareholder Adler. The boards are now being reorganised and the financing reorganised. We have cancelled the two BCP bonds, which are denominated in Israeli shekels. They will be repaid to eliminate the foreign currency risk. After all, we only have business in Germany.

We want to fully integrate BCP into LEG.

BCP will not remain an independent bond issuer?

Exactly. In future, bond financing will be carried out exclusively via LEG Immobilien SE as the parent company. The aim is to acquire BCP's free float via a squeeze-out, and delist the shares listed in Israel. We want to fully integrate BCP into LEG. This means a major reorganisation, as BCP's corporate structure is extremely complex. The legal domicile is in the Netherlands. This includes 100 subsidiaries, some of which are based abroad and act as portfolio holders for German residential property. All of these companies will be relocated to Germany.

The call option that LEG allowed to expire two and a half years ago provided for a price of 157 euros per BCP share. Why are you now paying 71% less?

All I can say is: We were not alone in the process…

Market leader Vonovia was also interested......

Whoever. We were the natural buyers because we already had a minority stake. But if I had known at the end of 2021 how quickly interest rates would rise in 2022, we would have refrained from acquiring the first BCP package back then. The decisive factor now was speed. We finalised the transaction in four weeks. You can only do that if you know the target. After Adler successfully restructured its bonds and published the audited annual financial statements for 2022 and 2023, we approached the majority shareholder at the beginning of October.

Will real estate transfer tax be incurred if the stake in BCP increases to 100%?

To a limited extent. We assume 3 to 4 million euros. There are minority shareholders in most of the sub-companies, so there will be no real estate transfer tax burden.

The portfolio is growing with BCP by 9,100 apartments, but only half of them are in the LEG core region of North Rhine-Westphalia. Some properties are even in eastern Germany. How much cleanup is needed?

We review the portfolio every autumn. This also applies to the apartments we have just acquired. They contain units that do not suit us because we have nothing else in the area. They are being sold because management efficiency is a valuable asset. The 800 apartments in Leipzig were of particular strategic importance because it is a strong market. The city has developed well. We need around 1,000 units in one location so that we can manage it efficiently.

More precisely, please: How many flats do you currently estimate are available?

I can't say yet. Firstly, the 3,000 flats from the old portfolio will be sold. Then we will take a detailed look at the BCP units. It is reasonable to assume that some of the holdings will be sold off. But even then, it is important to talk to the property managers on-site beforehand. We want to take this time. Because sometimes portfolios work so well that it would make no sense to sell them.

Project development is a completely different business to portfolio management.

What happens to the property projects?

The BCP property in Düsseldorf-Grafenberg will be sold. There are various options for Düsseldorf-Gerresheim. This is the largest remaining building plot in Düsseldorf. We're talking about 193,000 square metres, where you can build 1,500 or more flats. We may remain involved, or we may sell it completely. In any case, we will leave the project development itself to others.

So a return to the project business is not on the cards – despite the immense demand for new flats?

Project development is a completely different business to portfolio management. You need people with different skills and a different mindset for that. That's why I doubt that a residential portfolio manager is the best owner for property projects at the same time, even if they can obtain favourable financing. We stopped project development in the autumn of 2022, after the sharp rise in interest rates. At the moment, it is de facto impossible to create more affordable living space through new construction. Our monthly rents are currently averaging 6.78 euros per square metre, but you need more than 20 euros for a new build. A tenant who pays that has completely different service requirements than someone paying less than 7 euros per square metre. Offering this would lead to enormous complexity costs. We can't afford that.

Can a property owner as large as LEG hold out against investing in new construction? The public pressure due to the housing shortage in large cities is enormous.

If the yields allow it, we will not turn our backs on new construction. That's not the case at the moment. Existing properties are more attractive. Project developments harbour high risks. You generally don't get a risk-adequate return at the moment, even if you take 20 euros per square metre of cold rent. Unless you lower the construction costs.

Nicely labelled, well marketed, but not a solution to the problem.

That's what's happening with building type E.

Did the Minister say that (laughs)? The savings potential of building type E is much lower than claimed. It's only 5 to 10%. That changes the return calculation only insignificantly. So: Nicely labelled, well marketed, but no solution to the problem.

Vonovia says that building type E is so cheap that they want to get back into new construction.

There is a big difference between us. Our competitor is not only a property owner, but with Buwog and Quarterback, they are also the largest German project developer with correspondingly great expertise. Anyone who has this capacity will have to build at some point because the cities are putting pressure on them. They can't leave building permits on the shelf for years. We, on the other hand, no longer have any know-how in project development.

So it's getting harder and harder for tenants to find affordable housing?

The shortage will undoubtedly become more severe. But we should be careful with the terminology. There was a housing shortage in the 1950s when a large part of the German housing stock was destroyed by the war and millions of people moved in from the eastern territories. At the moment we have a housing shortage in some markets. But in Wilhelmshaven and Gelsenkirchen, LEG has vacant apartments. But you can't get anyone to commute from Gelsenkirchen to Düsseldorf despite good local transport connections. This shows that the price of housing in Düsseldorf does not adequately reflect the shortage. Düsseldorf would have to be more expensive for people to think about renting in Gelsenkirchen.

In future, they will be able to increase the rent more significantly in new contracts, as the federal law on rent control is expiring.

In our opinion, the majority situation after the federal election in February will be such that unfortunately little positive change will be made to rent regulation. That is our base scenario. I firmly believe that the rent cap will be extended after all. Do I think that's right? No. The extension does not eliminate the shortage.

How many of LEG's apartments are subject to the rent cap?

Currently, around 25,000 of our 167,000 apartments are in tight markets that are subject to this regulation. More important than the rent cap, however, is the rent increase limit, which limits rent increases in existing properties to 20% and in municipalities with a tight housing market to 15% over three years.

Will the rent forecast be increased if the price cap is removed?

We have not simulated this. In any case, the rent cap will continue to apply in some places until the end of 2025. Our forecast for rent increases in the current year remains at 3.4 to 3.6%, after 3.2 to 3.4% in the previous year. In the privately financed sector, rents will therefore rise by around 4%, while cost rents in subsidised housing, which accounts for 19% of the existing stock, will remain constant.

The new government would be well advised to set its priorities correctly.

What other expectations do you have of the future federal government?

The new government would be well advised to set its priorities correctly. First and foremost is external security, i.e. defence capability, then migration, which worries many people because it is seen as a threat to the labour and housing markets. The third is stabilising the economy. To do this we need affordable energy prices. That means sufficient generation capacity and network expansion.

Concerning new construction?

What will never lead to a solution is: We change the Federal Building Code and assume that the city councillors will grant a municipality a building permit that is designed in such a way that the LEG will build again. It doesn't work like that. The decisions are made at the local level. There we discuss parking space allocations, green spaces, the construction of schools and kindergartens and, if you like, the preservation of the European white elm. This usually makes projects prohibitively expensive.

LEG recently tapped the capital market with a EUR 700 million convertible bond. What is the money needed for?

To refinance the old 400 million euros convertible bond, which expires on 1 September 2025, and to repay covered financing. Investor demand was incredibly high, and the convertible bond was oversubscribed five times in a short space of time. We, therefore, increased the convertible bond, which was originally set at 500 million euros, by 200 million euros.

How do you view the bond market overall?

Very good. Many investors have indicated that they would like to buy a bond issue. Accordingly, we placed a ten-year bond worth 300 million euros on Monday last week. The coupon is 3.875% and here too the bond was oversubscribed several times.

What did the valuation round at the end of the year reveal? Has the forecast of a stable or slightly increasing inventory valuation of 0.5% in the second half of 2024 been confirmed?

The expected black zero seems to be confirmed. This is shown by the discussions with the appraisers.

After two years on the dark side, the market is gradually brightening up.

What is the outlook for 2025?

There will be no steep V-shaped recovery. We expect a U-shaped development, i.e. a sideways movement. Now, depending on the font, there are different U-shapes. Which one comes into effect, i.e. how long the sideways phase lasts, depends primarily on the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank, and thus also on the tariffs of the new US President Donald Trump.

Could transaction prices also fall again?

I think that is unlikely. The rental dynamic is too strong for that. We are more likely to expect residential property prices to rise slightly. This is confirmed by our own sales prices, which are continuously slightly above the respective book values. After two years on the dark side, the market is gradually brightening up. Housing is an extremely stable product and a scarce commodity that tends to become more expensive and is becoming more attractive as an asset class.

What does this mean for financial and capital management? Given the industry crisis, LEG switched to the cash flow-oriented AFFO key figure two years ago. Is it now time to go back?

We have decided on AFFO for 2025. If the U moves into the upward phase, we will return to FFO as a control variable. We had already announced this to the market when we introduced the key figure in autumn 2022. Until then, we will stick with our cash-oriented corporate management.

Despite price stabilisation, transaction volumes are still surprisingly low. Why is that?

International capital has not yet returned to its previous level. Private equity has once again missed the optimal time to enter German residential real estate. These firms have relied heavily on structured financing rather than direct investments. That is no longer worthwhile. Investors with long-term money such as US and Canadian pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds from Asia, need local partners. They are currently still in the discovery phase. We ourselves sold properties for 150 million euros in 2023. After nine months of 2024, it was more than twice as much. This shows that things are happening again in the transaction market.

About the person

Lars von Lackum has been the head of the LEG Immobilien management board since June 2019. His contract has just been extended by five years until the end of 2030. The manager, born in Duisburg in 1975, is responsible for acquisitions and sales, IT, compliance, sustainability and communication/investor relations, among other things. He started his career in 2000 at the auditor Deloitte & Touche in Munich. In 2002 he went to the insurer Munich Re, where he most recently worked as Head of Financial Reporting and Data Management. Von Lackum gained experience in the real estate industry as CFO and deputy spokesman for the management of the service provider Corpus Sireo. In 2013, the business economist and tax consultant returned to the Munich Re Group as Head of Group Development at the subsidiary Ergo and was promoted to the Board of Management of Ergo International in 2015. At the beginning of 2019, he moved to LEG, initially as Chief Digital Officer.