Even with the budget in place, the federal government is short of billions, especially for urgently needed investments in railway infrastructure. With the climate transformation fund overturned by the Federal Constitutional Court, the coalition has now identified another possible source of funding: the sale of shares in Deutsche Post and Deutsche Telekom.

The year-end rally in the stock market poses a certain appeal. The Deutsche Post share has almost completely recovered from the sharp setback in the third quarter compared to the high in August and is trading around a quarter higher than at the beginning of the year. The federal share, which is completely managed by KfW (20.5%), currently has a market value of 11 billion euros. To mobilize the planned 12.5 billion euros for the railway investments, a significant portion of the Deutsche Post package is expected to be divested – with the remaining amount to be raised through the sale of "T-shares". The federal government still holds 13.8% directly and 16.6% via KfW in Deutsche Telekom.

This is not the first attempt by a federal government to sell additional shares in the successor companies of the former Bundespost after going public. And money was not always the sole reason. The comparatively significant influence of the state, particularly in the case of Telekom, has repeatedly sparked criticism of a conflict of interest for the major shareholder. On the one hand, the state must consider the interests of the public, specifically maintaining fair competition. On the other hand, it also needs to show consideration for its own asset.

It is criticized, among other things, that Germany is lagging behind in expanding a digital gigabit infrastructure because the federal government must particularly take into account the financial difficulties of Telekom.

Regardless of whether the state's "protective power" has actually reduced the investment pressure on Telekom in Germany or not, the heavyweight representation of the federal government is a hindrance to the share price development of the "T-share". The intervention capabilities of a powerful major shareholder are principally not favored by the general public, and an insurmountable state influence even less so. Over the past five years, the Dax has consistently outperformed Telekom – sometimes significantly. This trend continued in the course of 2023, despite historically low price-earnings ratios for many index components.

In this respect, there is more than one argument for a further withdrawal of the state. But it is now a broad consensus among all stakeholders that the threshold for a blocking minority will not be breached. Advocates of a "protective power" not only point to the increased geopolitical risks, which make state control of critical infrastructure more necessary than ever. They also perceive risks in the presence of major shareholders from the Middle East or even Western regions who may not be necessarily welcome. If a US giant were to decide to swallow Telekom, a "protective power" would probably also be a "case of defense". The Spanish government envisions such a scenario as well, as they aim to acquire 10% of the shares following the entry of Saudi Telecom into Telefónica.

Nevertheless, the federal government is starting a tightrope act with a withdrawal to a 25% stake as it would clearly limit the flexibility of Telekom. If, for example, the US subsidiary, one of the largest telecom companies in the world by market capitalization, needed a capital increase for its own strategic transaction, the Bonn-based group could get into trouble. Given high debt, Telekom could hardly raise external funds to defend its majority in T-Mobile US. In the event of an own capital increase, the federal government would have to participate if the stake is not to be diluted. However, this seems hardly conceivable.

But such a scenario is not as far away as it currently seems. While T-Mobile US has successfully pursued an organic growth strategy for years, inflation and economic weakness in the US are significantly intensifying competition for customers. In addition, the lucrative US telecom market is attracting new players and business models. The end of comfort is imminent.