Shareholders still have to be patient
Mr Ebel, Tui's business is going well, but the share price is not getting back on its feet. Why is that?
We were once at just over 5 euros, now we are almost at 8 euros, but the share price is, of course, still unsatisfactory. We can now see that the short sellers have significantly smaller positions – betting on falling share prices – and I believe that this has led to an improvement. However, in my opinion, the current share price still does not reflect the realistic value of Tui. The only thing that will lead to a continuously better valuation in the long term is earnings growth. We can influence that. We are working on it. We have delivered double-digit EBIT growth for eight quarters in a row. Our goal for the future remains sustainable and profitable growth.
You are reporting rising sales and earnings, but the margin remains weak.
We are still perceived too much as a pure travel organiser. But Tui is also a developer, investor and operator in the hotel and cruise business, and very successful at that. The tour operator business is indeed low-margin, but Tui's cruise and hotel companies generate high returns. That is why we will make the transformation we have initiated a success, especially in the tour operator segment, but also in the airlines. The low margins are not an act of God, there are good examples of how we, too, can make these businesses more profitable.
Is there a target return for Tui?
If you look at the capital structure, we have hotels and aircraft, on the one hand, which have a high capital commitment. In the tour operator business, we have investments in IT and the brand but a low capital commitment. We will not be announcing the results for the past financial year until December. We confirmed the forecast for this in September, at least 25% growth in adjusted EBIT for 2023/24. We also have medium-term targets; we want to grow earnings before interest and taxes at an average annual rate of 7 to 10% in the medium term. In this respect, the exact margin is difficult to answer.
And what exactly does the transformation in the tour operator business involve?
It is a bundle of measures that will generate growth and increase efficiency. For example, we want to achieve this by tapping into new markets and gaining new customers. In addition, new products will be used to expand the shopping basket for existing customers. By this, I don't mean that someone will book a third package holiday a year, but we want to sell the customer activities and other ancillaries (additional products) and services, such as those offered by our subsidiary Tui Musement. In this way, we are also moving much more strongly into product differentiation.
What does that mean?
Just one example: We agree with the hoteliers that there are certain offers in their hotels only for Tui customers so that there is a unique selling point. This could be something like the Tui Kids Club or certain room categories. I always like to compare this with Netflix or Amazon, which became successful when they produced their series. For us, it's our products, new services and Tui's brands that bring growth.
In the platform business, you are in fierce competition with booking.com and similar providers, and are also late to the game.
In the past, each country had its IT platform, and things were done many times over. We are now building platforms that can be used for all markets. This reduces costs and increases the speed of development. Booking.com certainly has advantages as a first mover, but there are big differences to our offering. We operate hotels and ships ourselves. These are products and brands that we design and that have our DNA. We primarily sell packages and still have direct contact with customers via our travel agencies. High-quality advice, service at the travel agency and the security of the package holiday are of great value. Nevertheless, package holidays must not be overburdened by government over-regulation and thus made more expensive. German tour operators are currently depositing millions in a security fund, while foreign platforms can sell their holidays without protecting their customers. This is a regulation against German companies and against the small and medium-sized travel industry.
Are you compared with platforms like booking.com when it comes to reviews?
In terms of its set-up, Tui is unique. As far as I know, there is no other player in the world that combines platform technology and customer proximity in this way. That's why I have a very clear commitment to travel agencies – it's not nostalgia but service, convenience and customer proximity.
Do you have the feeling that what characterises Tui is understood by analysts and investors?
Analysts' comments are generally positive – and arrive at completely different valuations than our current share price. I have seldom experienced such a disparity. However, the transformation process that the company is undergoing is being understood more and more.
Has the switch to a sole listing in Frankfurt and/or the inclusion in the MDax provided any impetus?
For us, the stock exchange listing in Frankfurt alone is much less complex and, therefore, results in lower costs. We have bundled the liquidity of the share at one stock exchange location and have a more prominent position in the MDax. However, most investors are relatively indifferent to the trading venue.
The dividend payment was suspended in connection with government aid during the pandemic, when will it be paid out again?
This is an issue we have to deal with. We significantly increased earnings in the 2024 financial year, and significantly improved our balance sheet structures. Our goal is to reduce our net leverage to well below 1x. When we present our figures for the financial year in December, you will see that we have already taken a big step towards achieving this goal. At 1.2x net leverage in 2023, we were already better than in the pre-coronavirus year of 2019. We have also seen an improvement in our rating, but we are not yet back to pre-crisis levels. These components are the basis for formulating a sustainable distribution policy, which is a business decision that we will make in due course.
And what might this business decision look like in the medium term?
We weigh that up year by year.
What is the status of debt reduction?
Here, too, it's always about striking a good balance. If we put everything into reducing debt, we won't be able to invest anything. We want to use the free cash flow for both investing and reducing debt. Our ratings have a positive outlook, so people are definitely aware of what we are doing.
Companies such as Lufthansa want to organise their business more internationally due to the high location costs in Germany, does this also apply to Tui?
We have to position ourselves more internationally. We are now the market leader in the tour operator business in Poland, and have succeeded in entering the Czech market. We have done this via the Polish platform. In 2025, Slovakia and possibly Romania will follow on the same platform. This means there are hardly any additional fixed costs. We are growing in Portugal and Spain and are also active in South and Central America. We will also be entering the North American tour operator business in the near future. We are already operating globally in the hotel business, mainly with our hotels in Europe, the Caribbean and Africa. We have our first hotels in China and other Asian countries and are expanding the hotel clusters in North, West and East Africa.
What is the current regional distribution of Tui turnover?
In terms of earnings, the hotel and cruise companies are our strongest pillars, i.e. Tui-exclusive brands such as Tui Cruises with Mein Schiff, Robinson, Riu and Tui Blue. Today, we have two major core markets for our tour operator turnover: Germany and the UK. However, this is not reflected in the distribution of earnings. The results that we are achieving today and that we will achieve tomorrow will increasingly come from our global activities. Of course, I hope that Germany will get its act together in terms of the economy, but that is not a matter of two years.
Is the high-price business that Tui is increasingly focussing on sustainable in view of the increasing economic difficulties?
Our market share in the higher-price segment is much larger than in the low-price segment. And this segment is less cyclical. Due to the higher level of travel activity worldwide, a weakness in European business cannot be broken down 1:1. In the past, hotel revenues fell by 5% when bookings in Europe fell by 5%. Today, this is offset by travel flows from other source markets, some of which generate higher revenues. Our hotels in the Caribbean, for example, already have an average of up to 80% of customers from the USA and Canada. The Tui Blue Hotels in China have Chinese and Asian guests as their target group.