Already last year, the omens ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos were gloomy. Almost two thirds of the decision-makers surveyed feared turbulent, if not stormy, times in the next ten years. In addition to the consequences of climate change, the increasingly difficult geopolitics caused concern. Meanwhile, in 2025, US President Donald Trump is celebrating his return, brining of a completely new threat to global coexistence on the world stage. His imperialist ruminations in the run-up to his inauguration do not bode well.

In Davos, at the beginning it will probably only be possible to talk about the new US administration, but not with it. This is because no representative of the new government has yet been able to be announced in the Swiss mountain village. Trump's swearing-in ceremony falls on the same day as the start of the WEF.

Nevertheless, it is possible that concrete matters can already be discussed there. This is because Trump has promised a quick start and is likely to make decisions in the first few hours. Børge Brende, President of the WEF, has also stated that he is in dialogue with the new US administration. He is confident that high-ranking government representatives will be travelling to Switzerland. Issues of international cooperation, dealing with artificial intelligence and social media remain more pressing than ever.

However, there is also an opportunity for the WEF. The new Trump administration is giving an uncooperative impression before the start of the new term of office. However, no irreparable damage has yet been done, so the chances of involving the new US president in an international dialogue are perhaps better than at any other time. However, this only applies to the American side. In Canada, a change of government is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the European Union has rarely been so unwilling to engage in international negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron is weaker than ever a good two years before the end of his term of office. Last year, he travelled to Davos and unsuccessfully appealed to the EU countries to take on joint debt in order to invest in the continent's future. Already at that time, the former beacon of hope had his back to the wall in domestic politics. An early general election and several changes of government later, his situation has only worsened.

And he lacks contacts. In Germany, the coalition government, which was already divided a year ago, has long since collapsed. New elections are due a month after Davos. In principle, Germany is leaderless. The international geopolitical goals and priorities of a successor government under the probable leadership of CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz can also only be speculated about at present, in view of the difficult coalition negotiations that are expected. The weakness of the national governments is also causing uncertainty in the EU Commission. While Brussels has always presented a broad front in recent years, the new EU Commission has promised rigorous scrutiny of US tech platforms. However, the actual proof of determination has yet to materialise. And this will require a great deal of resilience, after US companies complained to Trump about the Europeans' harsh approach. The incumbent Biden administration was itself critical of the market power of the tech giants. With Trump's „America First“ approach, that time is over.

That leaves European business leaders to consider how they want to deal with the geopolitical wrecking ball known as Trump. Their US counterparts have made it easy for themselves and are almost universally swivelling towards the Trump course – less sustainability, less diversity, and more US focus. Davos must now show whether alternative approaches that focus on international cooperation can at least be developed. If this does not succeed, Davos is in danger of permanently becoming what it already is for the other 360 days of the year: a small, affluent Swiss mountain village far removed from the reality of the rest of the world.