Shortly before the decision on interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB), the financial markets are preoccupied with the question of how monetary policy will proceed after the widely expected first interest rate cut on Thursday. Ingo Mainert, CIO Multi Asset Europe at Allianz Global Investors (AGI), does not expect a second easing before the summer break. „The ECB is unlikely to take further action in July,“ says Mainert in an interview with Börsen-Zeitung.

On the one hand, in his view the economic environment does not require a second easing in the near future, since „we are seeing stabilisation in Europe, albeit at a low level.“ On the other hand, Mainert assumes that the upcoming inflation figures will contain slightly negative surprises, as was recently the case with the data for May. „From the summer, the dampening base effects of energy prices will come to an end, and commodity prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the year,“ he says. "Wage increases will also translate into higher prices on services.“

How strong wage growth will be, and to what extent this will lead to price increases, is one of the crucial questions currently occupying central bankers. Assessments in the ECB Governing Council differ as to how much scope there is for further price increases for services providers.

According to Mainert, the ECB could cut interest rates in September and/or December. New central bank projections on inflation and economic growth are also due then. September could also mark the start of the US interest rate turnaround. The CME Group's highly regarded FedWatch tool puts the probability at 54%.

For Mainert, there is a big question mark against a September rate cut by the Fed. There would have to be progress on disinflation, or the economy would have to cool down. And the closer we get to the US presidential election in November, the more obvious the monetary policy pressure will have to be for the Fed to act.