Gold price

Gold ETFs a significant driver of current high demand

Gold has staged a remarkable rally this year. In an interview with Börsen-Zeitung, Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council, explains which groups of investors are primarily driving demand.

Gold ETFs a significant driver of current high demand

Ms. Street, how did demand for gold develop in the third quarter?

Well, the third quarter was quite remarkable. Global demand for gold increased by 5% to a record volume of 1,313 tons. There was also a record in terms of the value of gold sales, which for the first time exceeded 100 billion dollars in a quarter. Of course, we have seen increased demand reflected in the price, which has climbed to record levels.

What were the main drivers of high gold demand?

Without a doubt, the primary driver was investment demand, which more than doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching 364 tons. Investment demand encompasses the net inflows and outflows of gold-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as purchases of gold bars and coins. Within this aggregate, it was primarily the inflows to ETFs that made a significant impact. This was the first quarter with net inflows into ETFs since the first three months of 2022. We have observed a return of interest from Western investors in American and European gold ETFs, which we have anticipated for several quarters. These substantial inflows compare to significant outflows during the same period last year, and they have obviously also pushed the gold price higher.

What do you think are the motivations of ETF investors to increase their investments now?

The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB certainly play a role, and the extent of the cuts may have surprised some investors. The rising geopolitical tensions have also likely contributed, along with the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections. Additionally, the price dynamic has attracted investors. We are talking about so-called momentum investors, who can be a significant driver of the gold price.

What else has notably driven gold demand upwards?

The so-called over-the-counter (OTC) demand has, as in the past seven quarters, made a significant contribution to gold demand. This category includes high-net-worth investors, and this trend appears to be a global phenomenon.

How has the general demand for gold bars and coins developed?

Demand for bars and coins was 9% lower in the third quarter compared to the same period last year – despite the rising gold price. This can be attributed to conditions in some key markets, such as China. It’s important to consider that the current reporting period is in comparison to a strong quarter last year. Overall, we are seeing the strongest demand for bars and coins in China since 2013.

What accounts for the decline in China in the third quarter?

There are several reasons, including the strengthening of the currency, leading to less gold being purchased as a hedge against currency weakness. Additionally, the Chinese central bank has not made any announcements regarding gold purchases in recent months, which some potential buyers interpret as a signal. Moreover, the announcement of stimulus measures by the Chinese government has increased the risk appetite of Chinese investors, driving the Chinese stock market higher. This has reduced the demand for safe assets in China.

Traditionally, jewelry demand is an important segment of the gold market. What was observed in this area in the third quarter?

Given the rise in gold prices, it is not surprising that jewelry demand has decreased. But it has shown considerable resilience in some key markets despite price trends. The notable exception is the Indian market, which has positively developed in terms of demand for bars, coins, and jewelry, largely because the Indian government reduced the import tax on gold by 9 percentage points to 6% at the end of July, triggering an immediate strong demand response. In contrast, China saw a 34% decline in jewelry demand compared to the same period last year, largely due to the increase in gold prices.

We often see that consumers with fixed budgets buy less jewelry when prices rise. However, consumers currently appear willing to stretch their budgets, as the monetary value of jewelry demand has increased by 13%.

What trends have been notable in other areas of gold demand?

Looking at the smaller segments of gold demand, there has been a 7% increase in consumption in the technology sector. This is likely driven by the growth in AI-enabled smartphones and the numerous low-flying satellites being launched for internet access, for which gold is an essential material.

One of the most interesting areas of the gold market in recent years has been central bank demand. What is the current trend here?

Central banks have made a significant contribution to gold demand in recent years. In the latest quarter, we observed a decline to 186 tons, which still represents a robust level. For the year so far, we are at about the same level as in 2022, which saw record high gold purchases by central banks. But we do not expect a new record in 2024. Central banks have informed us that their motivations for gold purchases remain unchanged, so have not diminished in significance.

Which central banks are particularly noteworthy in this regard?

We have seen that the central banks of Poland and Hungary are increasing their gold purchases. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India continues its regular buying, while the People's Bank of China has not reported any gold purchases since May.