Developed economies such as the Western industrialised nations are in the best position to use Artificial Intelligence to initiate a new surge in productivity and increase value creation. At the same time, however, they must also prepare for significant shocks in the labour market, and greater inequality in society. That is the conclusion of a study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which analyses the AI preconditions in 174 economies, and maps them regionally and in terms of content.

For some time now, the economic debate on AI has been characterised by conflicting positions. Some see AI as a great achievement which will make people more prosperous. The potential for increasing the productivity of existing jobs is enormous, and AI could also be a complementary tool, and contribute to the creation of new jobs and even new industries. Against this backdrop, others are concerned that the new tools will cause new waves of redundancies, because higher technical productivity initially tends to translate into job losses. They believe that it is not so much wage income that will benefit from AI ,but capital income, because the higher productivity will primarily benefit companies. In this context, there are sometimes even calls for a „machine tax“ in order to distribute the additional profit to the losers in a socially responsible manner.

The IMF has also recently begun to emphasise the social and structural challenges, and warn of social unrest. In a recent blog post, IMF economist Giovanni Melina warns that up to 33% of all jobs in industrialised countries could be at risk as a result of AI. In the emerging markets, the figure is only 24%. However, the conditions for the introduction of AI are also less favourable in these countries due to their poorer digital infrastructure, lack of human capital, lower level of innovation, and inadequate regulation. Accordingly, only 18% of jobs in low-income countries are jeopardised by AI.

The dashboard now launched by the IMF, which shows the level of preparation in individual countries for the integration of AI, is intended to help policymakers categorise their own country better. It is also intended to highlight gaps that still need to be worked on. The dashboard is also intended to provide pointers for identifying policy measures that need to be implemented so that „the rapid gains of AI benefit everyone“, writes IMF economist Melina.

In the best-case scenario, according to the IMF, AI can complement workers' skills, increase productivity and open up new career opportunities overall. Although up to 33% of jobs in advanced countries are at risk of being rationalised away, on the other hand around 30% of jobs could benefit directly from AI. Workers who utilise the technology could potentially see an increase in salary or higher productivity. However, younger workers may find it easier to take advantage of AI opportunities, while older workers may find it challenging to adapt.

Mira Murati, Chief Technology Officer of the AI group OpenAI (ChatGPT), assumes that AI is also increasingly pushing into creative professions, and that jobs could also be lost as a result. Some creative professions could even disappear, she suggests. And she believes that it is possible that the next generation of ChatGPT could achieve „PhD-level intelligence“ for specific tasks by the end of 2025 or early 2026, which will bring even more jobs into the focus of rationalisation efforts.

Against this backdrop, the IMF calls on political decision-makers in advanced economies to expand social safety nets, invest even more in the training of workers, and prioritise the innovation and integration of AI over other tasks. In a globally coordinated manner, these countries should also strengthen regulations to protect people from potential risks and misuse, and build trust in AI. The policy priority for emerging and developing countries should be to create a solid foundation, by investing in digital infrastructure and digital training for workers.