Long-awaited money shower from the US
The long-awaited news for investors that Deutsche Telekom will receive its first dividend from its growth and profit-strong US subsidiary has not spontaneously sparked cheers on the stock market. On the contrary, Telekom's stock is falling. This should come as no surprise because the Bonn-based company explicitly states that its previous dividend policy remains unchanged. A few years ago, Telekom decided to move away from Free Cash Flow as a measure and now uses "sustainable adjusted earnings per share" instead. Therefore, investors are realizing that the announced money shower of $1.8 billion after taxes, which will be funneled into the Telekom's coffers over the next five quarters through T-Mobile US dividends, will not directly benefit them.
While the earnings per share are expected to improve in the coming years, Telekom has recently been stingy in this regard. The dividend hasn't kept up with earnings growth, and the payout ratio has decreased.
Nevertheless, from Telekom's perspective, the initiation of dividend payments from T-Mobile US is a step in the right direction. This way, money flows from the USA to Germany not only to the extent that the parent company participates in the subsidiary's stock buyback program. Telekom can pocket these funds without affecting its ownership stake. The advantage should not be underestimated because, despite having expanded its initially slim majority stake in T-Mobile US, the issuance of new T-Mobile shares to Softbank as previously agreed still results in some dilution. Additionally, the US subsidiary has consistently announced rising dividends.
However, it is currently difficult to predict when Telekom shareholders will benefit from the financial windfall from the USA. The investment pressure in Germany remains high, especially in mobile and fixed-line telecommunications, where fiber-optic expansion costs billions. Telekom cannot afford to slacken here; on the contrary, it is intensifying the "overbuilding" of modern infrastructure, a move criticized by competitors, in order to secure its market share as best as possible in the long term. It is foreseeable that the expenses cannot be covered by a corresponding increase in cash flow from the domestic market, especially since Telekom must reduce its debt as promised to avoid endangering its credit rating. The patience test for T-shareholders will continue.