In a sense, Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz had it much easier. Eight years ago, the then Christian Democratic EU Commission chief only had to agree with the former Social Democratic President of the EU Parliament, and there was already a majority in the European Parliament. Between 2014 and 2019, the EPP, the party family of European conservatives and Christian Democrats, garnered nearly 30%, while the S&D, the political home of socialists and social democrats, secured around 25% of the vote.

It is true that even the sum of 55% does not guarantee majorities in Strasbourg, as party discipline in the EU Parliament is much less pronounced than in the Bundestag. And indeed, there are significant differences of opinion between Scandinavian and Southern conservatives or social democrats. However: the lower loyalty to the party family also works the other way around. While the EPP and S&D may not always align all their members, they also benefit from the fact that some liberals, greens, or leftists may vote with them. Thus, until 2019, the „grand coalition“ in the EU Parliament worked quite smoothly.

But this dynamic has already shifted in the current term. Christian and social democrats now have ten percentage points less than in the previous five years. The two major party families rely on the support of other factions if they want to organize a majority. Other factions are increasingly forming – in financial and economic matters, for example, a bloc more oriented towards consumer and investor protection from the S&D, Greens, and Left opposes a coalition of conservatives and liberals more focused on the competitiveness of the domestic financial industry.

The European elections will once again change this political landscape. For months, forecasts have indicated the following trends: If the polls prove true, the Christian Democrats will once again emerge as the largest faction by far. The Social Democrats will suffer minor setbacks but are likely to maintain second place. However, Greens and liberals are facing significant losses. Conversely, right-wing conservatives and parties on the far right can expect substantial gains. To prevent overestimating the shifts, it's worth noting that even when their seats are tallied together, the right-wing parties are unlikely to match the Christian Democrats.

There are, however, several uncertainties. For instance, the composition of the party families, especially on the right side. The party of the infamous far-right figure Éric Zemmour, Reconquête, known for his Islamophobic and chauvinistic statements, is not located in the far-right but in the centre-right camp – not in the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, where the AfD, Geert Wilders' Freedom Party, or the Italian Lega reside, but rather with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), alongside Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Poland's PiS. Meanwhile, the Italian Five Star Movement is currently among the non-affiliated, as is the Hungarian national-conservative Fidesz of Viktor Orbán.

It is entirely possible that Fidesz, which left the centre-right conservative faction in 2021, will join another party family after the elections in June. It is also not inconceivable that there will be „new affinities“ through shifts on the right between the ID and ECR – especially given tensions between the German AfD and the French Rassemblement National, particularly after its long-time leader Marine Le Pen called for a distancing from the AfD in the context of the debate on remigration.

In short, it will be more challenging for centrist parties in the new EU Parliament to form majorities. Their promise so far has been not to pass any resolution that relies on votes from the far right. Where exactly the far right begins is a constant subject of debate. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) has faced criticism for excluding cooperation with the far-right (ID) but not with the centre-right (ECR). In a recent roundtable in Maastricht, she said it depends on who joins which party group.

This suggests that in the future, very grand coalitions in Europe with four or even five parties will become more common. Consequently, one might expect that the next European Parliament will pass fewer laws than its predecessors. While this may sound very positive to some, it would be fatal to mistake the self-blockade of the EU Parliament – caused by an inability to form majorities – with a regulatory pause based on rational considerations.