Searching for greater planning certainty
The Deutsche Bahn board presented a truly alarming balance sheet recently: Deep red numbers, ever-increasing financial debts, and simultaneously, increasingly unreliable long-distance trains characterize the picture. To change this, short-term solutions likely involve selling the core profit contributor in the group (Schenker) to reduce debt. Medium-term solutions involve a consistent modernization of the dilapidated and failure-prone rail network. Deutsche Bahn can initially invest an additional 30 billion euros in its long-neglected infrastructure in the coming years. Fortunately for the state-owned company, the coalition government agreed on a multi-billion euro support package last year. This was crucial to finally initiate a turnaround.
Financing beyond 2027 remains unresolved
Nonetheless, financing beyond 2027 is still unresolved, leading to a lack of planning certainty not only for the railway but also for the necessary supplier companies for the comprehensive renovation. Even for the current year, not everything is set in stone: The Federal Railways Expansion Act is still being negotiated in the Bundesrat. Furthermore, the promised equity injection for 2024 depends on further state privatization proceeds.
In the coming years, the corporation must get back on track with investments in the rail network, digitalization, and automation to truly play a central role in the transition to sustainable transportation. Such a transition is essential for achieving climate goals. The breakup of Deutsche Bahn, as advocated recently by the CDU/CSU and the Federal Cartel Office, is not currently on the agenda. And that's a good thing given the current situation. Because speed is essential for the comprehensive renovation, and a fundamental restructuring with a separation of infrastructure sectors would make acceleration impossible for the time being.