It's not possible to make a concrete calculation at this point. What is clear, however, is that these tariffs will ultimately lead to higher investment costs in the US. Under Donald Trump, the US wants to expand its industry. To do this, however, they need machinery, which they have largely had to source from abroad because they don't even have the necessary technology themselves.

That's a truly vast range. The question that really ought to be asked is where the US has anything to offer in terms of capital goods. Of course, there are a few large corporations in the US in the construction and agricultural machinery sectors, as well as in oil and gas production. But then things start to get thin. In areas such as food or plastics processing, or machine tools or printing machines, there is currently no internationally competitive supply in the US. Here, the country is heavily dependent on imports. And they will probably decline due to the higher costs.

Of course, I don't know if Donald Trump is well aware of this. His speeches rarely focus on machinery, and mostly on cars. In German politics, by the way, it's not much different – ​​when do we ever talk about mechanical engineering? We may be the largest industrial employer in Germany, but nevertheless mechanical engineering doesn't feature in public debate. Because the industry – unlike the automotive or chemical industry, for example – is not dominated by large corporations, but by medium-sized businesses.

Of course, the 20% tariffs that are now announced are not factored into the project calculations. Therefore, I can't imagine that, under these conditions, the investments planned in the USA will simply be implemented one-to-one. With such high cost increases, some projects may have to be recalculated.

That's impossible to say at this point. The big question is whether the final word has been spoken in the US, or whether Trump's tariff package is an offer of negotiations. I'm naturally hoping for the latter, so that we can start talks with the US to lower the tariffs in the foreseeable future.

No. In the past, the US was the most important export market for German mechanical engineering outside the EU, for entirely understandable reasons. It's simply a huge market with high demand, and in many cases, there's little domestic competition. That's why doing business in the US has always been very lucrative. Apart from that, the US has always been a reliable partner who also shares our values.

In a survey conducted this fall, 70% of our member companies stated that they want to become even more involved in the USA – simply because the market is so large, because it's growing, and because customer proximity is becoming increasingly important. The tariff risk didn't play a role at that point. I also don't believe that a lot of companies will suddenly decide to set up production in the USA because of the tariff package, when we don't even know whether it will last long-term. Such processes are very complex, especially in mechanical engineering, and often take two to three years. Why should companies make such decisions now, when everything is so unpredictable?

No, not the entire industry. We are primarily medium-sized enterprises; over 80% of our members have fewer than 150 employees. These small companies are not in a position to simply set up an entire production facility abroad. Instead, they ship worldwide from here or from Europe, and usually still have sales and service networks in their most important sales markets to be able to respond quickly to customers. Some also have smaller assembly plants where products are adapted to local conditions. However, only our larger members can produce complete machines abroad.

Yes and no. Mechanical engineering is very heterogeneous. Where companies operate in niche markets and there are few competitors worldwide, suppliers have less to worry about, even in times of geopolitical upheaval. However, where there are hundreds or thousands of competitors worldwide, these distortions can certainly lead to difficulties. That's why we in the EU have been advocating for open markets for years. We need free trade agreements with all important partners, including those outside the major blocs such as China or the USA. And we believe that the EU has now understood this and that corresponding negotiations will soon progress more quickly.

The EU agreement with the Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which still needs to be ratified, is particularly important to us at the moment. A free trade pact with India would also be of great importance. However, the EU has not made much progress in this area so far. Ursula von der Leyen and her entire cabinet visited the country a few weeks ago and agreed with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to finalise such an agreement by the end of the year. While I consider this optimistic, India is under even greater pressure than we are, as US tariffs are even higher than those of the EU at 27%.