The auditions are over, now it's decision time: On Thursday afternoon, 27 representatives from the European Parliament will vote alongside 27 representatives from the Council (one from each EU country) to determine which city will be selected as the future headquarters of the new European Anti-Money Laundering Authority. Alongside Paris, Rome, Madrid, Vienna, Dublin, Brussels, Vilnius, and Riga, Frankfurt has also submitted its application. Diplomats acknowledge that Frankfurt stands a serious chance of becoming the home of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA). This time, the German financial hub can count on full support from the federal government – unlike in the competition for the EU Banking Authority (EBA), where Paris prevailed at the end of 2017.

Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner has actively promoted the establishment of AMLA in Germany's financial capital – and ministerial officials have reportedly held numerous discussions with other national delegations to advocate for Frankfurt. Moreover, during the January hearing in Brussels, Lindner proposed doubling the initially announced funding to 20 million euros if needed. Frankfurt has already put forward three buildings as potential options for the new authority, which, according to current plans, will eventually employ over 400 staff members.

Nevertheless, diplomats also point out that predicting the outcome of the AMLA decision is even more challenging than previous hosting decisions. Because of a ruling by the EU Court of Justice, the European Parliament now has a significant say for the first time – after all, exactly half of the 54 votes are in the hands of Members of the European Parliament. In Brussels, it is conceivable that the Council might make a decision on a city just before the decisive session, thereby presenting Members of Parliament with almost a fait accompli, as only one vote from the EU Parliament would then be required for a majority. In the European Parliament, there are discussions about consolidating votes so that each faction uniformly casts its vote, aiming for a more cohesive use of votes rather than individual deviations.

Representatives from Frankfurt and Hesse have argued repeatedly in recent weeks that the aim is not just to bring 400 high-quality jobs to the Main. Rather, the establishment of AMLA offers the opportunity to strengthen Frankfurt's profile as a regulatory capital – with the European Central Bank, ECB Banking Supervision, Bundesbank, BaFin, EU Insurance Supervision EIOPA, and the global sustainable standard-setter ISSB.