The market may have priced it in, but I wouldn't completely rule out the recession scenario just yet. The markets are actually counting on the economy picking up again, but I can't see where this is going to come from. The prospects for private consumption, investment, and net exports do not exactly point to a strong acceleration in US economic activity. Against this backdrop, I don't agree with the market view, which focuses in particular on the strong US labour market.

That is private savings. During the pandemic, many households continued to receive their income, but were unable to spend very much during the lockdowns, which led to a build-up of savings. Over the past two years, many households have used these so-called surplus savings for consumption. Excess savings have now largely been run down..

At the beginning of the year, the market was expecting six rate cuts, whereas the Fed was talking about three. Now it looks like there will be up to three rate cuts in the second half of the year. We have the US elections in November, and normally the Fed does little in an election year, so as not to be accused of influencing the campaign. This time it is clearly different.

It is primarily a question of an increase in valuations, and not a reflection of increased corporate profits. Some stock markets can be classified as very expensive. There is a certain discrepancy between what is being priced in and the reality. The equity markets are pricing in that inflation will return towards the central banks' 2% target, and are betting on stronger global economic growth. However, inflation is picking up again somewhat in many regions, the economic situation is rather weak, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed have disappointed for the time being. Earnings estimates are currently being revised downwards again for most markets and sectors. There is therefore a risk of a major correction — whether for the US or for the European markets, which are largely lagging the US.

High-quality companies in the eurozone have already performed very well. The European equity market is lagging somewhat behind the US market, as banks, utilities and telecoms have underperformed, and these sectors have a higher weighting in the European indices than in the US market. The fact that the European market appears cheaper than the US market is due to the higher weighting of these sectors, which are rightly valued lower.

In the case of Japanese companies, improved corporate management should be emphasised. For many years, companies have demonstrated a high level of operational efficiency, but have often completely neglected their capital allocation. Shareholder value was not so important to many, nor was profitability. Under the Abenomics programme, a change began here just over ten years ago, and the process is now accelerating. Capital allocation is improving, shareholders are more in the foreground, and many companies are increasing their return on equity. These are the main arguments in favour of the Japanese market.

Yes, absolutely. The rise in the price of gold points to a number of problems, such as the high levels of debt and budget deficits that can be observed worldwide. In the medium term, the gold price should rise significantly higher. In the short term, of course, correction phases must always be taken into account. The rise in the price of gold in 2023 and this year has also taken place in an environment of rising interest rates and a strong dollar, in other words in an environment that is generally regarded as negative for gold. So there are other factors behind the price rise, such as the purchases by central banks in the East in particular. I think we will continue to see these purchases in the future.