Long-standing certainties are currently being shaken by US President Donald Trump. The United States is no longer standing by Europe as closely militarily, politically, and economically as it has for decades. The U.S.'s tariff conflict with large parts of the world is likely to divert trade flows in the long term. „The Trump administration will not change global trade patterns for just two or three years. Decisions will have to be considered with a five-to-ten-year perspective“, says Nicolo Salsano, Head of Europe at Standard Chartered.

The British bank generates its main revenues not in the UK or continental Europe, but in Asia. Salsano expects that many of the bank's customers will likely react to the political developments in the US with a strategic shift. „I believe that our clients in the Far East will increasingly look to Europe. Currently, Europe seems to some companies to be a more stable and predictable trading partner.“

Beyond this, Trump's policies could lead to Europe benefiting in some areas. In response to actions in the White House, the EU plans to invest in the military on a scale it has never done before. Economist Ulrike Malmendier hopes that this could lead to a „coming together in Europe“ beyond just the military sector.

Progress in creating a fully integrated single market within the EU is considered by Malmendier to be a crucial key to stronger economic growth in Europe. „The EU single market is a sleeping giant for the German industry“,states Oliver Bendig, partner and head of industrial consulting at Deloitte. According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the burdens arising from differing packaging regulations, tax laws, and increasing reporting obligations amount to a theoretical tariff on industrial goods of up to 44%.

According to Deloitte, eliminating half of these burdens could result in an additional one percent annual growth in trade with most EU countries by 2035. This could offset the loss of business with the US due to tariffs.

Reducing bureaucracy has long been on the agendas of both the EU and national governments. However, developments in the US might give these efforts new momentum, as it has become more urgent for Europe to improve its competitiveness. „The markets may not like the chaos caused by tariffs and Trump's foreign policy, but if it leads the Eurozone and the EU to do what they should have done in the past 10 years, there's a small silver lining“, says Eric Robertsen, Chief Economist at Standard Chartered.

Another challenge for many European economies is the shortage of skilled workers due to an aging population and low birth rates. Trump's policies could improve Europe's situation here as well. For some international skilled workers, the US may have become less attractive due to the political shift in the White House. Economist Malmendier sees this as an opportunity to attract skilled workers to Europe who might otherwise have chosen the US. She advocates for revising Germany's skilled immigration law and offering incentives to attract international workers.

Economist Klaus Adam from University College London is among those who can imagine the euro gaining international relevance at the expense of the dollar. He even goes as far as to say: „The euro is in a good position to become the dominant reserve currency if Europe succeeds in growing economically stronger.“

Robertsen is more sceptical, saying that there are hardly any structural signs that the dollar could lose its status as the reserve currency.

But there is hope within the ECB and the EU that the euro could gain market share, especially if the euro area successfully completes the digital euro project while the US under Trump is not advancing the issue of digital central bank money. The ECB has been working hard for some time on the introduction of the digital euro, but this requires the EU to create the legal framework. The tensions with the US have given this issue additional relevance from the ECB's perspective, as Europe is currently highly dependent on American companies in payments.

Paschal Donohoe, President of the Eurogroup, recently expressed similar views. „The creation of a digital European payment system is now essential for securing Europe's strategic autonomy“, he said in mid-March. „A strong economy in the euro area is an anchor for stability and security on our continent.“

Whether Europe can truly benefit from the political developments in some areas remains uncertain. However, it is already clear that the US tariff policy will not produce any winners – neither across the Atlantic nor on this side. „We will experience a slowdown in global economic growth in the short term, that is indisputable“, says Salsano.