When asked about their opinion on President-elect Donald Trump, top German executives often respond with a counter-question: „Do you mean personally or professionally?“

This distinction sets the tone. As private citizens of Germany, most Dax executives reject President Trump. His character is deemed off-putting, and his approach to policy-making is seen as dangerous. When a millionaire CEO sighs and admits he might finally have to read Trump’s book The Art of the Deal, it is often accompanied by the remark that they will borrow the book from a library rather than purchase it. The motto is clear: not a single dollar for Trump.

This stance might work in private life, but professionally, it’s a different game. Leaders of globally operating companies generally believe they need to establish connections with Trump’s circle, or at least with the new Republican power hubs. However, any hope of influencing policy is scarcely to be found. Instead, the focus is on anticipating economic decisions early.

So far, Germany’s elite hasn’t made much progress. While top executives might confidently articulate their personal opinions, there is no coherent overall picture. One executive might insist that the situation will be even worse than expected, while others dismiss their concerns as merely reflecting the negotiating tactics of a real estate mogul. Elsewhere, some argue that economic megatrends, like the transition to climate-friendly practices, are so long-term that even a US president can only delay them slightly.

Naturally, the upper echelons of German business are well aware that their understanding of Trump remains limited. The US president changes his positions as often as his shirts. Predicting his decisions is often futile since they can become irrelevant by the next day. The one certainty for companies with a strong US presence: antagonizing the egomaniac is unwise. As a result, communication strategists across the board are instructing their teams to avoid even cautious distancing from Trump.

The sheer force with which the new US leadership can strike is evident in Trump’s attacks on Panama and Denmark. His current favourite, Elon Musk, is shaking up Britain’s political scene. The lesson: no blue-chip company from the Dax should put itself in the crosshairs of the social media artillery wielded by the world’s first truly global oligarch, or its most powerful president.

Ultimately, however, focusing solely on Trump is misplaced. The phenomenon highlights something far beyond the politician: uncertainty for decision-makers in the global economy is reaching a new dimension. In the past, corporate strategists prided themselves on having a „Plan B“ in their back pockets. Later, they divided their scenarios into three categories: worst, best, or base case. Today, the letters of the alphabet no longer suffice to map potential developments.

This volatility is not primarily about Trump. The unpredictability he represents can be found everywhere: a new war here, a coup there, radically changed legislation elsewhere, or a sulking local autocrat, a consumer protection activist, and so on. Reliability is a thing of the past, and now even predictability has vanished. A global order is disintegrating.

The consequences for multinational headquarters are uncomfortable. Of course, great strategies can still be devised, but they must be continuously adapted to new situations. Corporate teams at headquarters struggle to keep up with these rapid changes. While it’s clear that uncoordinated approaches are not an option, corporations must consider how to globally enable employees with new diagnostic and response capabilities.