My main concern with Donald Trump lies more in the political realm than in terms of the stock market. He obviously is a very unpredictable man, and uncertainty is bad for the market, especially after two strong years. I expect much more volatility in 2025.

Not at all. The assets of our clients are primarily in solid stocks, secondarily in good real estate, and thirdly in safe bonds to smooth out value fluctuations. Depending on market conditions, we adjust the weightings slightly to opportunistically increase performance.

For example, last year we sold some stocks for many clients and invested the realised profits in bonds. If there are setbacks in 2025, we’ll do the opposite – buy stocks and sell bonds.

I’ve been a wealth manager for nearly 40 years and have delivered an average return of just over 9% per year in stocks for my clients during that time. I believe that this will be more difficult going forward. I expect the long-term average return of 7% to 9%, which the stock markets have provided over the past century, to decrease to around 6% to 7% per year.

I believe that the global decline in interest rates will persist for an extended period. This also lowers the risk premiums that can be earned through stocks.

That’s the conventional wisdom, but there’s no evidence for it. While there is weak inverse correlation between interest rates and stock markets, just think of the dot-com bubble: Between 2001 and 2003, central banks drastically cut interest rates, but it took a long time for the stock markets to reach their bottom.

The dollar is clearly overvalued compared to the Swiss franc, and will need to adjust to purchasing power parity over time. The world has flocked to the dollar in recent years, and many hedge funds have borrowed large amounts in low-interest yen and invested in higher-yielding dollar assets. Such carry trades will eventually be offset by the principle that higher interest rates come with higher inflation. Countries with higher inflation tend to have weaker currencies.

We are very concerned about public debt, especially in the US. In 2023, the US budget deficit was 6.3%, despite a well-oiled economy. This cannot go on forever. But Japan, Italy, and France are also in need of fiscal restructuring. I can no longer, with a clear conscience, buy bonds from such countries.

No, eventually we taxpayers will have to pay down these mountains of debt. And companies won’t escape unscathed in the next debt crisis either. I tell my clients they should mentally write off 10% of their assets as a contribution to a global debt restructuring sometime in the future. I think this is how every pension fund, as well as every private investor, should plan.

Gold, even under these conditions, is not a good alternative to stocks. Despite the exceptional year in 2024, gold cannot compete with stocks in the long-term return comparison. I agree with the American financial writer Jim Grant, who says: „Gold is an investment in monetary chaos.“ One could invest in it, but I would only allocate a very marginal part of overall wealth, perhaps 2%.

I expect a world like the one I wish for myself and my descendants. If you believe that stock prices will no longer rise long-term in a way that compensates investors for their risk, then the market economy we live in would cease to exist. Perhaps we’d live in a state where private property no longer exists. That’s a terrifying thought for me. One that I wouldn’t bet on.

Yes, it does. Gold, which has special physical properties and is therefore also used industrially, is a far better investment. For me, Bitcoin is essentially the largest Ponzi scheme of all time.

It was 14%, despite the disappointing performance of some core holdings like Nestlé, Swatch Group, and Bayer. I’m very satisfied with the result. Especially considering that our stock portfolios are far better diversified than, say, the MSCI World Index.

Yes, Bayer is our most difficult case. Normally, class-action lawsuits would be a reason for us to exit. But we’ve stayed with it because the evaluation of Roundup, Monsanto’s pesticide that triggered the lawsuits, is somewhat controversial. Environmental authorities say that Roundup, when used correctly, is not harmful to health, but the courts are taking the opposite position. We still believe the environmental authorities' stance will eventually prevail in court. But this could go against us. However, my ambition as a wealth manager is also to swim against the tide and act counter-cyclically. I see that the company is still performing well operationally and has a healthy core.

Pirmin Hotz, 64, has been an independent wealth manager for nearly 40 years. In 2021, he published a successful book on investment strategies titled „Über die Gier, die Angst und den Herdentrieb der Anleger“.