The stakes are enormous. For around two decades, Google has almost monopolised internet searches. The world's most popular search engine commands a market share of around 85%, slightly less than that for computer usage, but significantly more for mobile devices, thanks to the equally dominant Android system software.

The iconic company, with revenues of 305.6 billion dollars last year, accounting for 99% of parent company Alphabet's revenue, generated advertising revenue of 234 billion dollars. This marks a significant entrepreneurial innovation by Google: „At the beginning, there was no commercial model for internet search“, explains Kathrin Schwan, Head of Data and AI in the DACH region at consulting giant Accenture.

Over the years, the Alphabet subsidiary has developed its complex algorithm tailored to its advertising clients into an unbeatable profit machine. "The Transformer architecture, crucial for generative AI, was indeed invented by Google“, says Schwan. However, the Google mask has remained practically unchanged from the beginning.

With the rise of ChatGPT and other text robots, known as large language models, utilising generative artificial intelligence (AI) to answer user questions, industry observers anticipate a revolution on the internet that will also alter searches. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recognised the potential early on. He injected billions into the ChatGPT developer OpenAI, and integrated the text robot into the Microsoft search engine Bing.

But the hope of dethroning Google at lightning speed has not materialised so far. Following the launch of ChatGPT, search queries briefly dipped, but ultimately, it was little more than a slight dent. „The power of habit should not be underestimated“, says Schwan at Accenture. She does not expect the established search model, based on a list of links that forms the basis for Google's sophisticated advertising business, to be displaced by a text avalanche generated by chatbots in the future.

„We will probably first observe that a new approach coexists alongside an old tried-and-tested one“, as has also been the case with other innovations, such as the emerging free-text search in the late '90s/early 2000s alongside the established directory with curated links. „The question will be: Do I want information or do I want a conversation? Both can coexist because they address different needs.“

With Gemini AI, Alphabet has launched a ChatGPT competitor that is expected to gain traction, especially for businesses, as a swift response to startup competition emanating not only from OpenAI. With German-based Aleph Alpha and Mistral in France, two prominent European startups have stepped into the spotlight, and in Silicon Valley, AI startups are popping up like mushrooms.

While investors are pumping billions into new shooting stars like Perplexity and others, the purported revolutionaries still fail to answer a central question – a lack of ingenious ideas for the commercialisation of text robots. The most obvious one, a simple payment model, is being tested and gaining ground among corporate clients. But it would represent a paradigm shift of almost gigantic proportions when it comes to globally scaled end-user usage. It would practically „shake the pillars of the free internet“, as Thomas Thiele, Principal at Arthur D. Little (ADL), puts it.

Nevertheless, rumours surfaced some time ago that Google was considering a „paid search“, and thus floated a test balloon for investors. „A premium search based on AI would be a conceivable variant, in addition to a free search version“, says Thiele. However, Google left concrete steps towards this goal open at the recent developer conference. Instead, the company announced a new element designed to complement traditional search with AI. Overview AI combines „the advanced capabilities of Gemini – including multi-stage decision-making, planning, and multimodality – with our premier search systems,“ stated Liz Reid, Head of Search at Google.

This does not suggest that the company wants to take a „quantum leap“ that breaks with the familiar. Nonetheless, Kathrin Schwan still considers the introduction of premium search possible. „The time for it could be ripe“, she speculates. After all, paid content has been established on the internet for several years. The best example is streaming providers, where users can obtain content ad-free according to their personal preferences for a low monthly fee, in a subscription model.

The paradigm shift is also being driven by the „public discussion about data protection and data sovereignty“, Schwan emphasises. Hence, she can imagine business models in which „users pay for search and, in return, reserve the right to significantly limit the collection and storage of their data.“ The idea probably holds little appeal for Google because the gigantic treasure trove of data is the raw material from which the company derives its profits. Therefore, it is not surprising that the management exercises caution with pure payment models. However, the pressure in this direction could increase.

„Another conceivable option is to also equip AI-powered search with personalised advertising“, says Thiele. He still sees Google more in a leadership role than as a follower. „The company has the data foundation and search algorithms and is very advanced in basic technology“, he adds. Thiele also expects that free ad-supported search will continue to have its place alongside a paid model in the future. „YouTube still exists alongside Netflix“, he emphasises. But one thing is clear: „Somehow, the immense costs for the development and operation of generative AI must be covered in the end.“