Deep-sea mining sounds a bit like science fiction. Almost like extracting raw materials from asteroids and comets. But a study by management consultants Roland Berger concludes that commercial production will start by 2030, and that 19 deep-sea mining sites will generate a total of around 25 billion dollars just five years after that.

If the International Energy Agency's (IEA) goal of reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050 is to be achieved, the demand for certain minerals that are necessary for the transformation to more climate-friendly mobility, among other things, will increase significantly. As the Roland Berger study shows, this demand can be met to a large extent by extracting raw materials from the deep sea.

The energy transition and the use of artificial intelligence are driving up global demand for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper. According to IEA estimates, the demand for cobalt, for example, will more than double by 2040, and for lithium it will even increase by a factor of 8. The study states that onshore mining is struggling to keep pace with this, as many deposits are reaching their limits: Ore grades are falling, costs are rising and the impact on ecosystems is increasing. Deep-sea mining appears to be a promising solution for meeting demand. According to estimates by the US Geological Service (USGS), the resources on the seabed are almost 20 times greater than the deposits on land. Technologies are currently being developed and tested to mine them on a large scale at low cost while minimising the environmental impact.

Based on interviews with experts, the consultancy concludes that by 2050, deep sea mining could fully cover the global demand for cobalt and manganese, 12% for copper and 25% for nickel. „Deep-sea mining can partially compensate for the deficits forecast by the IEA,“ says Zachary Kaplan, Partner at Roland Berger. „It can completely close the gap between supply and demand for cobalt by 2040 and also create a secure source of cobalt.“ Deep-sea mining would significantly change supply chains and the market structure - with consequences for existing and new supplier countries as well as processing and declining industries.

Environmental organisations sharply criticise deep sea mining projects. Greenpeace, for example, is in favour of preventing the seabed from becoming a mining area for mineral resources, in order to protect the sensitive ecosystems there. „Deep-sea mining could be permitted in international waters as early as summer 2025, paving the way for the destruction of the deep sea,“ warns the non-governmental organisation (NGO).

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has set itself the current year as the deadline by which a set of rules for deep-sea mining must be drawn up. Greenpeace is vehemently opposed to such a convention, arguing that it is impossible to draw up a set of rules that protects the deep sea.

The deep-sea mining industry is ready to dig up the seabed with huge machines, with the target manganese nodules, among other things. They contain rare metals that are supposedly needed for green technologies. But according to Greenpeace, "even major tech companies have spoken out against deep-sea mining.“

In contrast the Roland Berger study has found that minimising environmental damage, especially through more effective technologies, is right at the top of the agenda of those companies involved in deep-sea mining. Experiments indicate that the ecological footprint of deep-sea mining could be smaller than that of terrestrial mining. „Mining one type of deep-sea mineral (such as manganese nodules; editor's note) could lead to the extraction of three or four metals with an overall lower carbon footprint than mining at three or four different locations on land,“ says François Castelein, Partner at Roland Berger.

„We are convinced that deep-sea mining on a large scale, and with the appropriate technological maturity, offers major advantages over terrestrial mining," says Roland Berger partner Wolfgang Bernhart.

However, „regulatory uncertainty is currently holding back many institutional investors“ from getting involved in this sector, which harbours great potential, adds Roland Berger Partner Dominique Gautier. Nevertheless, the study concludes that „sluggish, capital-intensive sectors such as mining, but also customers such as battery manufacturers“ should address the issue at an early stage.

Large mining groups such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore and Anglo American are hardly involved in deep sea mining in terms of their turnover or financial strength. As is so often the case with new industrial sectors, small specialist companies such as Canada's The Metals Company (TMC), Global Sea Mineral Resources (GSR – a subsidiary of the Belgian Deme Group), Adepth Minerals (a subsidiary of the Norwegian Deep Ocean Group), and the China Ocean Mineral Resources Association (Comra) are all active in this field. If deep-sea mining does indeed grow to a considerable size, as Roland Berger expects, there will probably be takeovers by large corporations, as in many comparable cases.