ECB

With key interest rates gradually decreasing and corporate profits on the rise, Frank Engels, Chief Investment Officer of Union Investment, sees opportunities in equities for 2025. But the uncertain geopolitical landscape looms as a potential risk.

If Unicredit's takeover of Commerzbank succeeds, the fight against money laundering will face new cross border challenges. The EU institutional framework has structural shortcomings in reporting suspicious activities, and a lack of capacity in law enforcement.

Artificial intelligence (AI) can help central banks with forecasting. However, the technology also harbours risks for financial stability and monetary policy.

Inflation is falling again after the rise in May. However, the high inflation in services should cause unease at the European Central Bank.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel recently received the Global Economy Prize in the Economics category. Since taking up her post at the central bank, she has become an influential voice.

The CIO of LBBW Asset Management, Michael Hünseler, expects that the Fed will cut interest rates this year. And he anticipates greater volatility on stock markets.

The ECB's rate cut in early June was appropriate. But following it with another one in July would be a mistake.

Commerzbank's Chief Economist Jörg Krämer believes that the ECB's recent interest rate cut is likely to prove to have been a mistake.

Financial markets had already priced in the 6 June interest rate adjustment. The ECB must now weigh up its next move.

A recent survey commissioned by the Bundesbank shows that knowledge about the planned digital euro is still poor among the German population.

Ingo Mainert, CIO Multi Asset Europe at Allianz Global Investors, views it as unlikely that the ECB would come up with a second rate cut in July. And the Federal Reserve might not cut rates in September.

François Villeroy de Galhau warns against cutting rates too late by the ECB. In the interview with the Börsen-Zeitung the Governor of the Banque de France also talks about which factors could particularly influence monetary policy in the near future.

Carsten Roemheld from Fidelity International discusses the phenomenon of Nvidia, interest rate moves by the ECB, and sectors outside of big tech that have the potential to lead the stock markets.

Part of the population has little trust in public institutions, including the European Central Bank. This is not good for democracy, and the ECB wants to improve its own communication. But putting financial knowledge on the school curriculum would also help.

DIW President Marcel Fratzscher believes that interest rates in the Eurozone are too high and calls for a different communication strategy from the ECB.

The ECB is very likely to introduce the digital euro by the end of the decade. Whether this is an urgently needed innovation or a misguided project is a matter of debate among experts.

The ECB is making several adjustments to its monetary policy framework. However, the changes are not a departure from the current system of excess liquidity.

Monetary policy expert Volker Wieland believes that the current interest rate level in the eurozone is not particularly restrictive. Therefore, there is much to suggest that key interest rates will not be lowered before June.

When considering interest rate cuts, the ECB should not look too closely at its own forecasts for inflation and economic growth. There are several reasons for this.

The ECB bases its monetary policy on the economic data for the entire eurozone. The situation sometimes differs significantly depending on the euro country. This poses a problem for the central bank.

The uncertainty is high about how inflation and the economic situation of the Eurozone will develop in the coming months. Accordingly, the advice from economists to the ECB varies quite a bit, as a survey by Börsen-Zeitung shows.

There is concern that the ECB may lower interest rates too late in light of the successes in reducing inflation. Even though the ECB must be aware of this risk, it should by no means give in to market expectations of an interest rate cut by April.

The debate about the ECB‘s future course is gaining momentum - on the markets and among economists, but also among the euro central bankers themselves. In an interview, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks plainly about the current situation and the outlook.

According to François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France and Member of the Governing Council of the ECB, the European Central Bank should retain the great flexibility of the emergency bond purchase program PEPP as far as possible beyond its planned end in March 2022.