There is hardly any other sector of the economy in which it is more difficult for companies to make predictions or forecasts than the chip industry. This is not only due to the volatile and capital-intensive nature of the electronic microcomponent business per se, but above all to the increasing globalisation of activities. This makes the early-cycle semiconductor industry even more vulnerable to unexpected disruptions of all kinds, which economists refer to as „exogenous“ shocks.

The latter include exceptionally devastating natural disasters, the outbreak of wars, terrorist attacks and profound geopolitical upheavals. At the moment, all eyes are more than ever on the White House in Washington, and the US President in office there, Donald Trump.

The right-wing populist Republican, with his erratic trade and foreign policy, is indeed a risk factor for world events in general and, on an economic level, for the high-tech sector, to which chip manufacturers belong, in particular. The prudent, skilful reactions of Mexico, Canada and China may have mitigated their recent moves on punitive tariffs, but the danger of a global trade war, which would also include the EU, remains permanent under Trump's aegis.

The matador of the world's largest economy is the linchpin of a permanent conflict with emerging China. The Middle Kingdom, which has risen to become the world's second largest economic power, is gradually challenging the USA for first place. However, it does not matter whether the leading power of the West is led by a politician from the Republican or Democratic Party. The struggle for dominance, including on a technological level, will also shape the coming decades. Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden from the Democrats, showed this.

The dualism between the USA and China casts a shadow on the chip industry, which has mutated into a key sector in recent years. Some even claim that semiconductors will replace oil as the lubricant of the global economy in the 21st century. The fierce struggle between the two superpowers for the leading role in the future field of artificial intelligence (AI), where power semiconductors are used extensively, supports this theory. It is no coincidence that Washington is trying to make it more difficult for Beijing to access Western technology and know-how in this field. This tends to accelerate the trend towards protectionism. Chips are increasingly used as a means to an end. The semiconductor market has become a political football.

This further reinforces the impression that the chip industry is in an ongoing state of emergency, in a kind of permanent stress. Trump's punitive tariff coup, the recent AI push by the Chinese start-up DeepSeek in the field of AI, and Beijing's sabre-rattling over the island republic of Taiwan, which is extremely important for the chip industry, triggered shock waves that hit semiconductor manufacturers directly.

The more difficult environment means that the reliability of forward-looking statements by listed chip manufacturers and their suppliers is decreasing enormously. This in turn increases the uncertainty of investors, because planning is becoming more challenging for company management. Some might tend to stop providing forecasts publicly.

This raises concerns over even more severe price fluctuations in chip company shares on the stock exchanges. The growing risk of increased volatility on the capital markets is illustrated by the very contradictory statements from STMicroelectronics and Infineon on the question of when the current cyclical industry downturn will end. Investors who have invested in this technology sector need a lot of patience and strong nerves.