Amid all the praise for SAP and the transformation achievements of the Walldorf-based software company, let's take a moment for some sober reflection. Yes, it’s true: SAP continued its strong performance in the first quarter, even exceeding expectations in some areas, confirming its outlook for the year, and staying steady in turbulent times. This is certainly deserving of recognition – or, to quote CEO Christian Klein aptly: SAP has done its homework. But with all the good news, one must still ask: Are the external global factors being downplayed in the midst of all the optimism?

The stock price rises after the announcement of the figures, and analysts breathe a sigh of relief. However, it’s important not to forget: the praise is primarily for the first three months of the year. This is where things get interesting. US President Donald Trump has only given a brief reprieve on the tariff issue – it's too soon to relax. And even though SAP may not be directly impacted by potential tariffs, one thing cannot be completely overlooked: If SAP's customers struggle, they may have to cut costs, potentially slashing IT budgets. That means SAP could still feel the effects indirectly. While analysts had already pointed this out before the quarterly results, the concern seems to have lost some traction since then. Yet, the current uncertainty remains unchanged.

The second point is: Yes, SAP has confirmed its forecast. But the board itself has stated that achieving the upper end of the range requires a very favorable resolution to the ongoing trade conflicts. And even though the contractually secured revenues, or the current cloud backlog, look promising, there is still another uncertainty: the exchange rate, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate as it has recently. This is significant, as SAP generates a substantial portion of its revenue in the US.

One analyst writes: The strong quarterly results are currently overshadowing the macroeconomic situation. However, these issues are still relevant and could impact the company in the short or long term – perhaps with a delayed effect. CEO Klein has spent recent years positioning the company for the future. But preparing for someone like Donald Trump is simply difficult.