Dax companies paying out bigger dividends than expected
The best time of the year is now getting underway for equities investors in Germany – the dividend season. Deutsche Telekom invites shareholders to its Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Bonn on 9 April. Shareholders' wallets will then be filled with the dividend payout. And like several other major Dax companies, Deutsche Telekom has come up with some good news, with an increase in the dividend from 77 to 90 cents per share.
Munich Re invites shareholders to its AGM in Munich on 30 April. With a significant increase in the dividend from 15 to 20 euros per share, the insurance group has also sent out a clear signal. Then in May, most Dax stocks will pay out dividends – which will be plentiful.
Overall, the 2025 dividend season is coming as a positive surprise, as the payouts significantly exceeded analysts' previously rather cautious expectations. Given the problems in the automotive industry, experts had assumed that the dividend total in the Dax would be lower than the previous year. In December, for example, Deka had forecast a slight decline in Dax dividends overall.
It is now clear that the previous year's level will be reached and a new dividend record could be achieved. „The total dividend payout is likely to rise from 53.9 billion euros to 56.0 billion euros,“ explains Frank Klumpp, equity market strategist at LBBW. „This is due to the fact that, on the one hand, the aggregate decline in dividends in the automotive sector is likely to be lower than originally feared and, on the other hand, many other dividend proposals have turned out higher than initially expected.“
Andreas Hürkamp, equity market strategist at Commerzbank, also notes that the dividend season in the Dax is going better than expected and anticipates a slight increase in total payouts in the leading German index.
Munich Re increases significantly
„Compared to our expectations before the reporting season, the dividends paid by 16 companies were higher than expected,“ notes LBBW's Klumpp. Only six Dax representatives will submit a lower dividend proposal to the AGM than forecast. At sectoral level, companies from the automotive, industrial and insurance sectors will each pay out almost one billion euros more than had been expected before the reporting season.
Commerzbank strategist Hürkamp counts 14 dividend surprises. Munich Re, for example, surprisingly increased its dividend from 15 to 20 euros, while market expectations were only 16.50 euros. At 15.40 euros, Allianz is also paying slightly more than the expected 15.20 euros. „The announcement by Airbus to pay a special dividend of 1 euro per share in addition to a regular dividend of 2 euros per share was something that hardly any analysts had in mind,“ says Hürkamp. Adidas also exceeded estimates. And Fresenius has now announced a dividend of 1 euro per share again, following the cancellation of the dividend in the previous year. This is also more than the market anticipated.
On the other hand, BASF's dividend cut to 2.25 euros per share after 3.40 euros in the previous year was disappointing. Merck and Volkswagen will also pay a dividend slightly below market expectations.
The data shows that 21 of the 34 DAX companies whose Annual General Meeting will take place by the end of May are increasing their dividends. Including Siemens and Siemens Healthineers, a total of 23 of the 40 DAX companies are increasing their dividends this season.
Cuts at car manufacturers
Only five companies in the leading German index are cutting their dividends per share. In addition to the chemical giant BASF, these are the car manufacturers Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen and Porsche SE. Surprisingly, the sports car manufacturer Dr Ing. Porsche is not reducing its dividend, but is again paying 2.31 euros per share to its preference shareholders.
Including Porsche, Infineon and Sartorius preference shares, nine Dax stocks are paying an unchanged dividend this year. And with Zalando, Siemens Energy and Qiagen, three companies in the top German stock market league are not paying a dividend. In the previous year, there were four, because Fresenius did not pay a dividend at that time.
The order of the top dividend payers in the Dax has changed. According to calculations by DZ Bank, Allianz is in first place, having increased its dividend payout by 10% from 5.4 billion euros in the previous year to almost 6 billion euros. This means that Allianz contributes around a tenth of the total payouts of the Dax and MDax stocks. It was followed by Deutsche Telekom with a total payout of 4.41 billion euros. Bronze went to the Mercedes-Benz Group with 4.14 billion euros. „The manufacturer with the three-pointed star was just ahead of Allianz in first place in the last analysis twelve months ago,“ explains DZ Bank analyst Stephen Schneider. „However, following dividend cuts totalling 20%, it has now had to relinquish this position.“
Adidas increased its dividend the most, by 185.7% from 0.70 to 2 euros per share. However, Commerzbank, which is fighting a takeover attempt, also increased its dividend by 85.7% from 35 to 65 cents per share. Deutsche Bank has also raised its dividend per share significantly from 45 to 68 cents, an increase of 51.1%. And Rheinmetall is paying out 8.10 euros per share this year, which is 42.1% more than in the previous year.
Auto stocks offer the highest dividend yields. Mercedes-Benz Group, Volkswagen preference shares and BMW currently offer yields of 8.1%, 6.9% and 6.0%. However, the cyclical automotive sector is under massive pressure, so it is questionable whether auto stocks will be able to maintain their dividends in the future.
In the long term, it is more promising for investors to focus on stable dividend aristocrats that do not cut their payouts, but fill their shareholders' wallets year after year with relatively high payouts. These include the insurance giant Allianz with a dividend yield of 4.4%. Munich Re, which currently has a dividend yield of 3.4%, is also regarded as top quality.
DZ forecasts upward trend
It is difficult to predict how dividends will develop in the coming years due to the current high economic uncertainty. On the one hand, dividend payouts have always been subject to fluctuations. On the other hand, there are signs of a stable upward trend, in the view of DZ Bank.
„Dividends are and will remain an essential part of long-term asset accumulation,“ DZ Bank emphasises. This is particularly true for Germany, with its comparatively high dividends. The performance index Dax, which includes dividends, clearly outperforms the price Dax.